The State of the Atmosphere: Sunday, August 25th, 2019

Well, perhaps not a record-setting cold spell on the way this week, but after today's heat the cool down on the way will be noticeable and I think well received by many.

Today temperatures will climb into the upper 90s for highs in Denver. By Tuesday, widespread 70s to near 80 degrees will be about as hot as it gets across Northeast Colorado.

MOS guidance is actually running a bit colder than we are with our forecast right now in Denver. NAM MOS has a high of just 71°F on Tuesday, while the GFS is coming in at 77°F. We area currently going with 80°F, as how south/west the anomalously cool air will make it we think is in question. Nevertheless, still some 17 degrees cooler than our forecast for today, even with our conservative forecast, and the potential to be upwards of 20 degrees cooler by Tuesday depending on how things shake out.

Today's heat is well established across the state:

Temperatures today are forecast to be well above average across Colorado, with temperatures at or below average for states to our north

By Tuesday we see a stronger push of colder air across the Northern Plains, some of which will work into eastern Colorado to help cool us off:

By Tuesday we see below average temperatures pushing into Eastern Colorado

Overnight lows will be cooler too. The NAM MOS has a low of 51°F at DIA early Wednesday morning, while the GFS/EURO are in the low 50s. At the moment not looking like we'll manage the 40s with this one, but a notable chill in the air for many on Wednesday morning it would appear.

Look for temperatures to warm again Wednesday and Thursday, before cooling back down once more to end the week.

For precipitation... well, the first front doesn't look to offer much moisture it appears. Will there be some storms Monday and Tuesday across eastern Colorado? Yes. But probabilities for rain will be low -- especially for the Denver area.

The GEFS ensemble forecast shows very little support from any of ensemble members for rain in Denver on Monday and Tuesday (we'll go with about a 20% chance of storms for the city), but a bit more green showing up later in the week as a secondary cool down moves through:

Not a whole lot of argument from the European model on the precipitation outlook either, with near average precipitation forecast for eastern Colorado this week, and a dry week ahead for central and western Colorado:

Perhaps not the cool down I know many of your are eager for, but I hope this week brings some relief from the real summer heat, and maybe just enough of a taste of fall to make those eager for the seasonal change happy. Are you ready for fall?

Brendan Heberton

Brendan is founder of Weather5280. He is co-founder of FreshyMap, and develops software for geospatial data analysis and visualization.

Denver, Colorado
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