Storm Recap: Snowfall Totals and Forecast Verification

Snowfall totals for the overnight storm came Thursday morning and fit largely within the forecast ranges we provided earlier this week.

Here are the point observations via the CoCoRaHS network. Click here for an interactive version of this map.

An interpolation of the observations is shown here(right), side by side with our forecast(left).

Overall, the majority of points aligned with the forecast. Where we did not hit the mark was off by an inch or two. To have prevented that error we would have needed to move the small sections (near Boulder) of the 1-4" and 3-8" lines to the northeast slightly. The Boulder area was about 2" higher than indicated. Also, there were some higher totals near Nederland that would have benefited from a second 5-10" zone for western Boulder County.

We discussed to insiders and briefly to the public side the chance that Boulder overperforms in our comments about a section of the north metro favoring from a band of snow to push past the indicated totals.

This snow event provided great moisture for a parched pattern this October but is much drier than October of last year.

Let's look at the total precipitation in October 2018 (top) versus October 2019 (bottom):

And, the same comparison but only for the SNOTEL sites show wetter conditions last year:

We are tracking the next snowfall event with lasting cold air starting Sunday. Our Insiders have the early look at the data.


This is a collaborative post from multiple authors at Weather5280.

Denver, Colorado
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