Latest on storm as models back off on snow potential for plains

Rain and snow continue to push into Colorado, and will gradually spread over the urban corridor and Northeast Plains as the day progresses.

As we outlined yesterday, the greatest impacts today through Thursday night will be felt across the western and southwestern portions of the state. In fact, models over the last day or so continue to back off snow potential across eastern Colorado even more so than yesterday.

Below is the view as of Wednesday morning from Wolf Creek Pass, great to see!

A look at the latest HRRR model shows rain and snow showers pushing off the mountains through the afternoon and evening, but each run of this model backs off on just how much we are likely to see east of the hills.

It has much of the best snow potential getting locked up in the foothills, with spotty light totals for areas along and west of I-25, mainly at higher elevations:

Timing may be that the heaviest precipitation (both rain and snow) will move through for the evening rush. We don't expect huge impacts for most areas, but a heavy snow shower should not be ruled out –– and if it materializes, a slow and slushy commute home today.

The GFS for its part also backs of snow potential through tonight, just a Trace to 2" for the region:

And total through Friday not much more:

In the end we continue to think our outlook from yesterday calling for a Trace to 3" through Friday morning looks good up and down the I-25 corridor. As temperatures fall below freezing tonight any moisture we do see this afternoon/evening will freeze on the roadways –– so icy will be a concern in spots for your morning commute. If you end up under a heavier snow shower, we may see it able to overcome temperature issues just enough to put down a quick coating to 2" ... it just doesn't seem like this will be widespread.

The latest hourly outlook for the Denver area is as follows. A good chance we'll see rain and snow this afternoon/evening, but with marginal temperatures snow impacts look for the most part on the low side. Showers continue off and on into Thursday night, before dropping off early Friday:

As you can see above, another wave will pass through tomorrow afternoon and evening, but it too looks less and less interesting for our area as far as impacts go. Of course we'll continue to track things and offer updates as needed... Best to plan on a cooler, more unsettled end to the week starting this afternoon, but unless you're enjoying the storm from the high country you likely won't be snowed in.

Brendan Heberton

Brendan is founder of Weather5280. He is co-founder of FreshyMap, and develops software for geospatial data analysis and visualization.

Denver, Colorado
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