Matt Makens

Looking at the Gamblers Charts based on data throughout Monday, this is the
highest impact event indicated by my gambler data since the March blizzard,
although the impact area is different.

Look at Northern Colorado! My goodness, those are stout odds for high totals:


Those odds drop a bit within the Denver area:


And, even more of a drop for the Palmer Divide and Colorado Springs:

Colorado Springs:


Why the drop here for farther south? For one, the track, as we've discussed. For
two, this is a good indication of the dry air intrusion that remains possible
for these areas. If a dry slot does form, it'll keep Denver to Colorado Springs
with lower totals than the high-end range. However, better to air on the side of
caution and remain going big. BUT, high-resolution data is supporting the lower
end totals, and this must be followed closely overnight.

One such model, the Avalanche Center's WRF. It indicates lower totals south of
Denver in its morning, and midday model runs.

I'm not jumping on that wagon yet unless the Monday evening data from NAM or EC
start to trend that way also.

As of this post, the evening NAM isn't on board with drying things out...it
stays juicy. I wonder if the Avalance Center's model will ramp up at 0z... this
is fun!

Highest impact probability since March blizzard for Northern Colorado