Matt Makens

The latest drought monitor continues to show the ongoing issues for the Four
Corners region and the continued Extreme Drought in parts of Texas. However,
recent moisture in southwestern Kansas has eliminated the extreme classification
there.



Let's check the recent conditions via The National Drought Mitigation Center,
University of Nebraska-Lincoln:

Summary

"An area of upper-level low pressure entered southern California by December 26
and then progressed east across the Four Corners region. This upper-level low
resulted in heavy rain and high-elevation snow from southern California east to
southwest Colorado and New Mexico. A surface low developed across the
south-central Great Plains on December 28 with a subsequent track northeast to
the upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes. Heavy snow fell to the northwest
of this low pressure system, while moderate to heavy rainfall accompanied the
cold front as it shifted east from the Great Plains to the East Coast. Following
the heavy precipitation across the Pacific Northwest during mid to late
December, precipitation average below normal during the final week of December.
Enhanced onshore flow resulted in periods of heavy precipitation along the
Alaska Panhandle, but longer-term precipitation deficits persist. A low pressure
system and trailing front brought locally heavy rain and damaging winds to parts
of the Hawaiian Islands this past week."

The precipitation for the past two weeks was quite wet for the extreme southwest
and through a large section of the corn belt in a surplus area that covered the
Texas Panhandle and ran through to the Great Lakes. This is the percent of
normal precipitation:

Here is a look at the past month's precipitation showing a drier than average
swath over Texas to the Ohio Valley and for the Northern Rockies as well as
portions of Colorado and New Mexico:


The precipitation outlook for the next week, running through the January 9th) is
favorable for the far northwestern US and the Appalachians. The Nation's
midsection is likely to be drier than average with very little to no
precipitation expected:

Taking that precipitation forecast and showing the amount of it will be in the
form of snow for the next seven days:

That snowfall forecast doesn't indicate much in the way of major storms to bring
significant snowfall outside of the mountains in the Pacific Northwest.

And, looking at the week after (week 2 takes us up to January 16th) we see a
consensus on wetter than average conditions across most of the country:

An early look at that week's forecast indicates a significant storm track
forming over the southern US with impacts mostly to those along and east of the
Mississippi.

Let's go out even further. For the next month (running through all of January),
we see a trend toward much drier than average conditions for California, as well
as much of the Nation's midsection including Colorado, Nebraska, Kansas,
Oklahoma, Texas, and New Mexico.
![WeatherBell - ECMWF 30-Day Total Precipitation)

With the above outlooks, we are likely to see the drought remain with little to
no improvement for most. Texas will likely see the drought worsen in areas
through January.

Drought Update & The Outlook: Thursday, January 2nd, 2020