Matt Makens

The ocean and atmosphere data has been collected from December and gives us an
indication of what January and February conditions are likely to be.

First, looking only at the ocean data of 2019 and comparing it to years past, I
tabulated the following similar ocean years:



These analogs show the strongest support for 2013, 1986, 1968, and 1957.

Taking that idea a step farther, let's look at similar years of the ocean and
atmospheric combined conditions. With that, I find that 2015, 2014, 2004, 2002,
1997, 1994, 1991 had the most common ocean-atmosphere couplings.

If I combine those analog years and average the precipitation conditions I can
see the following indications for January and February.

January will be wetter than average for parts of the Eastern US, from eastern
Texas to the southern great lakes, and wetter than average for the Pacific
Northwest. January will be drier than average across the Four Corners and across
the Southeastern US. *You'll find this outlook is very much like what I've
discussed for some time in my weekly drought updates for the PRO users*
[https://weather5280.com/insider/drought-update-the-outlook-january-9th-2020/].



Followed by February where we see a reversal of the wetter than average
conditions to the Eastern US as well as parts of the southwestern and western
US. *Note, I don't believe the strength of the wet signal over California. I'll
touch more on that in a quick moment.



Given the possibility of a number of cold air outbreaks for the Eastern US, I do
believe the forecast flip to drier than average in these areas makes some sense.

However, for California to have that strong of a wet signal would take more of
an input from El Nino that what we can expect. A slightly positive ENSO forecast
is at play here, meaning a neutral ENSO pattern slightly leaning toward Nino is
expected, and as the grouping of forecast models show here, a decreasingly
positive signal is ahead.



For that reason, I do not expect California to be wet, rather I would place
California in the neutral to dry conditions for February.

Again, all of the above information is based on historical patterns to create an
analog forecast.

I change gears a bit and will now use modeling. I'll only use the European
modeling in this report as it has the track record to justify its sole use.

The European modeling suggests the following for January:



And for February:



I want you to notice how closely aligned the model is for January to that of the
analog forecast above. Plus, the February modeled image is also very close to
that of the analog forecast above with the exception of the extreme wetness and
dryness in the analog is not as pronounced here in the model.

I feel that the combination of the analog suggestion and the modeling to back
that suggestion up is quite convincing for the outlook in January and February.

January thus far is panning out along with what we expect. Here is January
average precipitation to date:



That is a nice confidence boost to the model and analog forecasts above.

For the remainder of January and for February I expect to see the storm track
shift farther south and weaken some for the eastern US. This will result in the
smaller area of above-average precipitation and that area will also shift to the
south. Along the same line, I expect the Pacific Northwest to dry as the storm
track moves farther south for the Western US as well.

Where does that leave Colorado? Well, the January pattern has been drier than
average for most of the state, and there should be a slight boost back toward
neutral and wetter conditions for parts of the mountains as we go through the
next six weeks. So far this winter the Northern and Southern mountains have seen
above average snowfall, with the Central Mountains and Eastern Plains running
behind (Dec 1 - Jan 13):



In the end, however, the signal remains with no significant preference toward
wetter or drier than average conditions at this time.

A significant change to the ocean and ocean-atmosphere conditions will be needed
in order to have a judgement as to the wetness or dryness of spring 2020.

December 2019 signaled a dry January and a nearly average February