Matt Makens

The latest drought monitor continues to show the ongoing issues for the Four
Corners and Pacific Northwest and the continued Extreme Drought in parts of
Texas.

Drought numbers decreased by less than 1 percent for the Lower 48 during the
past week.



Let's check the new conditions via The National Drought Mitigation Center,
University of Nebraska-Lincoln:

Summary

"Warmer than normal temperatures were common this week over the eastern half of
the continental U.S., while temperatures were primarily near normal over the
western half, with a few exceptions. Moderate to heavy precipitation was common
this week along and east of the Interstate 35 corridor, excepting parts of the
Northeast and the Florida Peninsula. In the West, moderate to heavy
precipitation also fell in some of the higher elevation areas. For more details
on the geographic distribution of precipitation and temperature anomalies,
please see the regional paragraphs below. The only exceptional drought occurring
in the United States, on Maui, was removed this week after a major precipitation
event in Hawaii, where other improvements were also made. Heavy rainfall in
northern and eastern Puerto Rico also ended the moderate drought there. In the
central and eastern continental U.S., drought conditions generally improved in
areas that received heavier precipitation, while some degradation occurred in
locations in Texas and Oklahoma that remained drier. The depiction of moderate
drought and abnormal dryness also changed in Idaho, Washington, and Oregon,
where recent precipitation (or lack thereof) affected mountain snowpack and
short-term precipitation deficits."

Observations

The precipitation for the past two weeks is quite wet for a large portion of the
eastern half of the country. This is the percent of normal precipitation:

The past 30 days have been robust for most except the western US and areas of
the northeast. The highest precipitation has come to much of the Corn Belt:



The Outlook: Week 1

The precipitation outlook for the next week is favorable for much of those
along/near the Mississippi and the Pacific Northwest:

The amount of snow for the next seven days favors some of the western mountain
ranges but is a bigger focus on those in the upper Midwest, and Great Lakes:


The Outlook: Week 2

And, looking at the week after we see higher confidence on wetter than average
conditions across the south and east coast but likely drier than average
conditions across the Midwest:


The Outlook: Month

For the next month, we see a trend toward much drier than average conditions for
most of the Southwest, northern Rockies, and the northeast. The southern plains
and southeast to the upper Midwest are more likely to see wetter than normal
conditions through mid-February.


Bottom Line

With the above outlooks, we are likely to see the drought remain with little to
no improvement in the Four Corners and Pacific Northwest. Texas will likely be a
location to see the drought spread and grow, although the precipitation trend is
more favorable to stop the spread of the Texas drought if that wetter weather
pans out. Wetter weather should continue to improve the drought in Western
Kansas.

Drought Update & The Outlook: January 16th, 2020