Brian Bledsoe

So many questions regarding the upcoming POTENTIAL storm. Internally, we've been
chatting about it all day, and we are not really any closer to a decision on
what the storm will do. Which to be honest, isn't all that surprising given how
the models have performed lately. Instead of belaboring that point, here is what
we have been chatting about...

Midday Sunday 700mb Low Position and Wind Field

3KM NAM


12KM NAM



GFS



EURO



Look for the circulation across Southeast Colorado. Pretty crazy to see that
type of agreement and really not have a good idea about how much snow we see or
don't see.

Without posting a the rest of the maps in regard to storm movement, I can tell
you that all of the models slide the storm more eastward along the KS/OK line.

Historically, when the 700mb Low is in that kind of geographical location, it
produces significant upsloping and good snow...especially along and north of the
Palmer Divide. What does this mean for snowfall potential?

Model Snowfall Inconsistency

Here are the previous updates to modeling to show how each is quite
inconsistent:

3KM NAM
Morning Snow Forecast


Midday Snow Forecast


Evening Snow Forecast


12KM NAM
Morning Snow Forecast


Midday Snow Forecast


Evening Snow Forecast


GFS
Morning Snow Forecast


Midday Snow Forecast


EURO
Morning Snow Forecast


Midday Snow Forecast


Those maps are snowfall potential through early Sunday evening, but WHAT A MESS,
huh? Little to grasp other than uncertainties.

Normally, I think we would be ready to just grab the EURO model and say this is
what it will do. However, even the best model in the forecast suite is having a
tough time resolving the storm. This all despite having the storm positioned
relatively like the other models.

The fact that both NAM models are on board this evening with a more significant
storm, gives us pause in just using the Euro or a blend of the global models.

At any rate, if you live in Eastern Colorado or Western Kansas, and have
livestock or travel interests, you need to at least be prepared for a potential
storm. There will be plenty of wind too, and that could certainly cause blowing
and drifting snow.

It won't be a cold storm, but cold enough to cause issues with the snow and
blowing snow. Stay tuned!

Storm or no storm Sunday and Sunday Night?