Matt Makens

The latest drought monitor continues to show the ongoing issues for the Four
Corners region, the Western US, and the continued Extreme Drought in parts of
Texas.

Drought numbers decreased for some, but only a 0.5 percent decrease for the
country since last week.



Let's check the recent conditions via The National Drought Mitigation Center,
University of Nebraska-Lincoln:

Summary

"High pressure continued to persist over the eastern Pacific Ocean, forcing a
split in the normal west to east upper-air flow for Pacific storm systems. As a
result, storms bypassed the central West (e.g. California and the Great Basin),
instead tracking northward into the Pacific Northwest and British Columbia, and
southward across Baja California and the Southwest. This pattern has produced a
very dry January and February in California, normally the two wettest months of
the year, resulting in an expansion of short-term D0 and D1 that are impacting
non-irrigated land and non-managed rivers. Fortunately, the statewide reservoir
storage stood at 104% of average for this time of year. Farther to the east,
once these systems reached the Plains, Gulf moisture was entrained into them,
generating widespread precipitation across the South and Southeast and mixed or
frozen precipitation in more northern locations. The week’s greatest
precipitation (1-4 inches) fell on the northern Cascades, parts of the Southwest
(mostly Arizona), the central Plains (mainly Kansas), and from central Texas
eastward across the lower Mississippi, Tennessee, and Ohio Valleys, the
Southeast, and southern Appalachians. Little or no precipitation, however, fell
on most of California, the Great Basin, and Intermountain West, northern Plains
and upper Midwest, parts of the southern Plains, most of Florida, and the
mid-Atlantic. Weekly temperatures averaged below normal in southwestern Alaska,
the Northwest, Rockies, Plains, upper Midwest, Southeast, and New England. In
contrast, above-normal readings were observed in eastern and southern Alaska,
the Southwest, eastern Great Lakes region, mid-Atlantic, and along the eastern
Gulf and southern Atlantic Coasts."

Observations

The precipitation for the past two weeks is quite wet for Kansas and parts of
the Southeast. This is the percent of normal precipitation:

Here is the past 30 days:



The Outlook: Week 1

The precipitation outlook for the next week (running through the 5th) is
favorable for the Appalachians to New England. The Nation's midsection and west
is likely to be drier than average:

The amount of snow for the next seven days is a rather "low end" impact:


The Outlook: Week 2

And, looking at the week after we see a consensus on wetter than average
conditions across the west and Great Lakes:


The Outlook: Month

For the next month, we see drier than average conditions for much of the
country, except the Ohio Valley to New England.


Bottom Line

With the above outlooks, we are likely to see the drought remain in the existing
areas, and perhaps an increase in the drought for the Pacific Northwest and
Nation's midsection.

Drought Update & The Outlook: February 27th, 2020