Brian Bledsoe

The latest EURO Seasonal forecast came out today, and it really isn't a great
deal different from what we've been advertising. You know we've been concerned
about drought for awhile now, and with a budding La Niña
[https://www.weather5280.com/blog/2020/05/11/la-nina-development-update/], we
remain pessimistic on many fronts when it comes to rain this summer, and
moisture this fall. 

Here is the latest sea surface temperature anomaly forecast from the model. That
is, where its forecasting above and blow average sea surface temperatures for
the upcoming months: 

JUNE

JULY

AUGUST

SEPTEMBER

OCTOBER

NOVEMBER

DECEMBER

The blue stripe of color that extends through the equatorial Pacific Ocean
represents ocean temperatures that are cooler than average, indicating La Niña
conditions. The model appears to have the "strongest" La Niña signal before
winter, then tapering a bit in December. 

Historically, La Niña episodes last 6-18 months. The model would indicate a
shorter La Niña episode, but I'm certainly not ready to sign off on that yet.
The signal remains stout in the modeling.

Now let's look at the same model's precipitation forecast for the next months. 

JUNE

JULY

AUGUST

SEPTEMBER

OCTOBER

NOVEMBER

DECEMBER

Now, the EURO Seasonal model isn't the end all be all of forecasting.  However,
it is consistent with what we've been thinking in regard to the ongoing drought,
and the developing La Niña. 

It doesn't take an expert to look at the maps above and figure out that the rest
of the thunderstorm season and monsoon are certainly in jeopardy of failing.
Again, this is very consistent with our thinking. Does that mean we won't have
any more thunderstorms this summer? No, of course not... but, it certainly means
that we will likely be dealing with a lot more fire concerns versus flooding,
and if correct a rather dry pattern extending across most of the plains states
as we head through the summer. 

It is still a long ways away, but given the continuation of La Niña conditions
in the fall, we are also quite pessimistic on rain/snow potential for Southern
Colorado. La Niña episodes are notoriously dry for the southern half of the
state. So despite the model indicating average to slightly wetter than average
after October, it is far too early to get excited about that. 

Last year this model overdid the monsoon potential, let us hope this year it's
under-doing it. From where we sit right now, this outlook is very much in line
with our thinking, and that is concerning.

A look at the latest seasonal model data and some thoughts on this year's monsoon