Matt Makens

Extreme drought remained in the past week with unusually warm temperatures and
lots of wind. 

That heat and wind of the past several weeks produced a rapid expansion of the
drought in many areas, namely Colorado. The growth was so rapid, the term flash
drought has been used. 

Here is a statement issued Thursday by the Boulder Office of the National
Weather Service.

"DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 330 PM MDT THU
JUN 25 2020  ...DROUGHT EXPANDS INTO THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF COLORADO...
 SYNOPSIS...  COLORADO’S DROUGHT MITIGATION AND RESPONSE PLAN AND TASK FORCE
WERE ACTIVATED FOR 40 OF COLORADO’S 64 COUNTIES THIS WEEK.   HOTTER WEATHER AND
LITTLE RAIN LINGERED AT MANY LOCATIONS THE PAST  2 WEEKS. SOIL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SUFFER ACROSS COLORADO, WITH  THE NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
SHOWING SOIL MOISTURE BELOW THE  5TH PERCENTILE FOR MUCH OF THE STATE. THE U.S.
DEPARTMENT OF  AGRICULTURE ANALYSIS INDICATES NEARLY HALF OF COLORADO’S PASTURES
 AND RANGELAND IS IN POOR TO VERY POOR CONDITION WHICH IS THE THIRD  WORST
CONDITIONS BY STATE IN THE U.S. AS OF JUNE 21ST.  HOT TEMPERATURES, LOW
HUMIDITY, WINDY CONDITIONS, AND LACK OF  PRECIPITATION IN JUNE HAVE LED TO
ABNORMALLY HIGH EVAPOTRANSPIRATION  RATES CONSISTENT WITH A FLASH DROUGHT. A 
FLASH DROUGHT REFERS TO A  DROUGHT THAT TAKES PLACE MUCH MORE RAPIDLY THAN A
REGULAR DROUGHT,  RESULTING IN REDUCED SOIL MOISTURE AND VEGETATIVE STRESS."

To show the stress evaporation has caused, our attention is grabbed here by
Colorado and Western Kansas:

The latest drought monitor continues to show the ongoing issues for the Four
Corners region, namely Colorado, and the continued Extreme Drought for the
Western US. 

Let's check the recent conditions via The National Drought Mitigation Center,
University of Nebraska-Lincoln:

Summary

"Precipitation fell across much of the northern tier states and the eastern half
of the CONUS this week. Much of the eastern United States has experienced
increased dryness over the past 30-60 days and above normal temperatures. The
heaviest rains missed many of the D0 and adjacent areas, warranting D0 expansion
for several locations in the eastern CONUS. The Northeast (New York to New
England) has seen conditions drastically deteriorate this week. Agricultural
impacts are being reported across many areas in New England, particularly Maine,
and 7-day USGS streamflows are below the 10th percentile for much of the
Northeast Region. Areas just east of the Rockies missed out on some of the
heavier precipitation this week, which fell over central Kansas, central
Oklahoma, and northern Texas. This allowed for some improvement, mainly in areas
that with D0 and D1 designations at the start of the week. However, severe (D2)
and extreme (D3) drought designations remained for many locations in the Texas
and Oklahoma Panhandles, eastern New Mexico and Colorado, and western Kansas.
Mixed improvements and degradation in the northern Rockies and High Plains."

Observations

Observations the past two weeks. This is the percent of normal precipitation:


And, the past 30 days:

The Outlook: Week 1

The precipitation outlook for the next week, running through July 2nd is
favorable for much of the Midwest and Corn Belt. 


The Outlook: Week 2

For week 2, let's see the general probability of drier versus wetter than
average areas from NOAA. Given the pattern, and absence of persistent storminess
over the drought regions, it is easy to see why the highest drought region will
remain drier than average. 


The Outlook: Month

For the next month, we see a trend toward much drier than average conditions for
brown shaded areas (extremely so in the reds), and wetter than average in the
green shaded regions. This runs through the last week of July and is an
indication that the stormier pattern we have on the plains during the next two
weeks may very well benefit the next month's worth of precipitation.

Bottom line:

It is expected to see drought numbers increase due to the relative dryness that
will cover the Four Corners region where the drought is very likely to worsen
and spread. 

The next month will not bring much moisture to Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado,
Kansas, Oklahoma, and Nebraska.

Drought update & the outlook: Thursday, June 25th, 2020