Matt Makens

Exceptional drought conditions take over parts of Colorado and Kansas this week
as the total drought area continues to increase.

The favored precipitation areas in the next two weeks, and for the month, will
be the northern high plains. I discussed the July outlook in depth in a
previous
post linked here
[https://www.weather5280.com/blog/2020/06/30/july-outlook-temperature-pattern-to-shift-but-precipitation-likely-to-remain-much-the-same/]
.

Unlike in the last drought update, the evaporative stress wasn't as extreme in
Colorado or Kansas this past week. However, high evaporative stress is in other
parts of the west. To show the stress evaporation has caused, here are the last
week's EDDI categories:

The latest drought monitor continues to show the ongoing issues for the Four
Corners region, namely Colorado, and the re-entry to the exceptional drought
category.

Let's check the recent conditions via The National Drought Mitigation Center,
University of Nebraska-Lincoln:

Summary

"Precipitation was hit-or-miss this week for many locations east of the Great
Plains. Much of the Midwest, South, and Southeast saw combinations of D0
additions and removals based on 7-day rainfall accumulations. Most areas with D0
removal observed at least 2-3 inches of rainfall. Some short-term dryness crept
into southern Georgia (isolated 2-4 inch 30-day deficits) and the Florida Gulf
Coast (widespread 2-4 inch deficits over the last 14 days). The Mid-Atlantic
coast saw some D0 expansion near the Delmarva Peninsula. Portions of New England
saw more than 3 inches of rainfall, drastically reducing 30- and 60-day deficits
and warranting some D1 removal. However, USGS 7-day average stream flows remain
below normal for much of the Northeast. The High Plains and northern Rockies
also received some beneficial rainfall. Many locations in Idaho saw 1-category
improvements (D1 to D0 and D0 removal), but much of the northern High Plains
Region did not receive enough rainfall for much improvement. Some degradation
from D3 to D4 occurred in southeastern Colorado and southwestern Kansas in areas
where little or no precipitation fell and temperatures averaged above normal for
the week. The wildfire risk remains high for many locations that remain in
drought, particularly in the West."

Observations

Observations the past two weeks. This is the percent of normal precipitation:


And, the past 30 days:

The Outlook: Week 1

The precipitation outlook for the next week, running through July 9th is
favorable for much of the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. 


The Outlook: Week 2

For week 2, let's see the general probability of drier versus wetter than
average areas from NOAA. Given the pattern, and absence of persistent storminess
over the drought regions, it is easy to see why the highest drought region will
remain drier than average. In fact, most of the country flips to a drier than
average outlook for July 10 to 16.


The Outlook: Month

For the next month, we see a trend toward much drier than average conditions for
brown shaded areas (extremely so in the reds), and wetter than average in the
green shaded regions. The favored precipitation areas will be the northern high
plains. I discussed the July outlook in depth in a previous post linked here
[https://www.weather5280.com/blog/2020/06/30/july-outlook-temperature-pattern-to-shift-but-precipitation-likely-to-remain-much-the-same/]
.

Bottom line:

It is expected to see drought numbers increase due to the relative dryness that
will cover the Four Corners region where the drought is very likely to worsen
and spread. 

The next month will not bring much moisture to Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado,
Kansas, Oklahoma, and Nebraska.

Here is the outlook in terms of drought growth or decay for the month of July,
the highlight being the far northern plains:

Drought update & the outlook: Thursday, July 2nd, 2020