Weather5280 Insider
Weather5280 Insider: El Niño update
Just a short update on the current status, and where we are likely heading with El Niño. First, here is a look at the current sea surface temperature anomalies: Very  warm water just off the west coast of South America, and that warmer  than average water extends westward across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Overall, the Pacific Ocean continues to warm, despite a few spots that  are currently cooler than average. All of the  forecast models continue to develop this episode further, during th
Weather5280 Insider
January update: Death to La Niña?
It's increasingly likely that La Niña is very near the end of this latest phase as the likelihood of La Niña conditions this spring falls to 14% in the latest CPC forecast released this week. Here is that forecast, shown as the probability of ENSO phase going forward through three-month seasons. For March-April-May we have an 82% probability of neutral conditions. That forecast is based on multiple model and statistical projections for sea surface temperatures (SSTs) within the ENSO 3.4 regio
ENSO
Ever Hear About The Atlantic El Niño?
Yep, it's true... The Atlantic Ocean has its own version of El Niño. It isn't quite the global influencer that the bigger Pacific El Niño is... However, it has been researched enough to provide somewhat of "a tell" about what phase the Pacific ENSO may develop into. First off, where does the Atlantic El Niño occur? The map above shows the warmer than average sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of Guinea...just off the west coast of Africa. This "ENSO region" is much smaller than the Pacific E
Weather5280 Insider
La Niña development update
A couple months ago, we were telling you that there was potential for a La Niña episode, before the year was done . While we were pretty sure about some of the signals, ENSO forecasting this time of year is always tough. Models struggle in the spring, and this is affectionately called the "spring predictability barrier". We've seen ENSO events show up in the modeling only to disappear as we enter into summer. Howe
Snowpack
Perspective on Colorado's Snowpack: Is There A Downward Trend?
Matt Makens is a KWGN Pinpoint Meteorologist and occasional contributor to Weather5280 from Denver's Pinpoint weather team. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- It's the time of year when we look at the snowpack numbers to climb, and hopefully stay near to above average for water resources, fire danger, and the economy; so far, so good. Here is the average snowpack chart for Colorado showing a nearly normal curve until th
PDO
A Closer look at What El Niño Means for Rain and Snow in Colorado
There has been a great deal of interest in El Niño recently, following multiple authoritative statements that it is on track to be "a significant event ". This conjures up memories of 1997 , which was a significant year for El Niño . This was the year Chris Farley performed his famous El
El Niño
What Does the Return of El Niño Mean for Colorado?
The ENSO pattern changes areas of heavy snowfall for the mountains, but little else You may have seen headlines to the effect of "El Niño will return in 2014." For the most part, those headlines are correct. The Australians started the El Niño talk a few weeks ago when their modeling indicated a weak El Niño to develop by this summer. That talk has been furthered with many more weather agencies now modeling the same result. It's surprising to see how this discussion has grabbed the headlines re