Winter Storm
Potent winter storms moves through Monday night, but will it be a direct hit or near miss?
As we covered yesterday on Weather5280 Insider , our targeted active period for winter weather is upon us, and with it another chance of snow for Northern Colorado following quickly on the heels of yesterday's snow. Today there is better consensus on the modeling for this next system, but the devil is in the details. While the trend overall has been toward the GFS solution (a deeper, more impactful snow eve
Snowfall Forecast
Storm(s) Update: The Cold Has Arrived, Snow Coverage and Intensity Increase Through the Afternoon, Overnight
Everything appears on schedule this morning. Some light snow around the region this morning will likely give way to a brief lull before coverage and intensity begins to increase through the afternoon and and evening. Widespread snow will develop first to the north, then gradually work its way south overnight into Monday morning. For areas like Colorado Springs, the heaviest snow from round one may not arrive until the morning rush. This morning's key takeaways: * Not much change to overall fo
PM Update
Monday PM Update: Foothills, Palmer Divide Look to be Favored for Heaviest Snow Midweek
Even as snow continues to fall across the High Country this afternoon, we continue to look ahead to the next blast of wintry weather due to move through Wednesday into Thursday. This next system, unlike the one that moved through the state this weekend, is likely to bring a higher chance of snow for the urban corridor, though plenty of uncertainty as to how much, remains. At 500mb we see a trough drop out of the Northern Rockies along with the northwest flow aloft Wednesday during the day, the
Denver Forecast
Update on Rain and Snow Potential Sunday Night Through Tuesday
We continue to track a big cool down and a damp end to the weekend and start to the coming week across Eastern Colorado and the High Plains. Sunday will remain warm across Eastern Colorado, with changes arriving late in the day. Cold air is lurking to the north, with much of the Central and Northeast United States already feeling the chill: Temperature anomaly forecast midday Sunday By Monday night we see the cold air pushing into Northeast Colorado By Monday afternoon temperatures well be
Weekend Outlook
Weekend Outlook: A Few Warm Days Ahead, but Changes Coming
Well, say it ain't snow. Denver's weather will end the week and start the weekend feeling quite summer-like, with highs in the upper 70s today, and low 70s in the forecast for both Saturday and Sunday . But later in the day Sunday our attention turns to a chilly and wet change to our weather pattern. But first, to our storm chances today. Not great odds overall east of the mountains, but a few storms will make their way off the mountains later this afternoon and evening, an
Morning Storm Update: Little Change to Going Forecast, Blizzard Warning Goes into Effect at Noon
A look at the radar this morning shows drizzle/mist across the greater Denver area as we saturate and cool the air in preparation for this afternoon's heavier rain and snow. Up near Fort Collins we've already seen some snow and mixed precipitation with a heavier pocket of showers pushing off the Front Range mountains: Overall we don't see much of a reason to change our forecast . We're still going
Snowfall Forecast
Evening Data Continues to Support a Wild Weather Day for Colorado Wednesday
No change this evening to our forecast issued earlier today . Everything looks on track to bring a round of wild weather to Northeast Colorado Wednesday, with wind, rain, thunder, hail, snow, whiteouts, and a solid 50+ degree temperature plunge from our (official) high of 78°F in the Mile High City today to tomorrow night. Latest analysis shows our storm system taking shape in the west, with a
Forecast Discussion
Update on Wednesday's System as Winter Weather Highlights Are Issued for Northeast Plains
A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for the far Northeast Plains of Colorado, including the cities of Fort Morgan and Sterling. The Watch calls for the potential for several inches of snow from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night, with gusts to 65mph. Ahead of Wednesday's cold front we will be dealing with warm temperatures, low humidities, and breezy conditions –– and with that a Red Flag Warning has been issued for much of eastern Colorado: As we've discussed several times now, Wed
Denver Forecast
A Significant Storm Next Week for the Plains States, Details and Exact Track to Be Determined
Sunday evening update: The State of the Atmosphere: Sunday, March 10, 2019, "Will It Storm?" Edition -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- As we've been tracking for some time now on Weather5280 Insider , a potent March storm is set to move out of the Southwest United States this coming week, and intensify as it does so the leeward side of the Rockie
Colorado Weather
Thursday PM Update: Tracking Weekend Snow Potential
I, like you, woke up this morning expecting models to suddenly be producing a ridge over Colorado this weekend instead of a storm since I'm used to disappointments this year. Much to my surprise, this was not the case. Instead, we continue to track one of the better looking systems we've seen this winter – due to arrive late Friday to western Colorado, and overnight Saturday into Sunday across northeast Colorado. There's a lot to be considered yet, including remembering how all of our "storms"
Denver Forecast
Denver's First Snow of the Season Could be Days Away
Earlier this week we posted for our Weather5280 Insiders that Denver may see its first flakes of the season by early next week. The pattern continues to be supportive of this, and models continue to hint at the chance as well. If we see any accumulation it'll be the first time in three years we've seen our first measurable snowfall before November in the city, and the first time sinc
Record Heat
A Look Ahead as Record Warmth Continues Across Eastern Colorado
Just after noon today we were sitting in the mid 70s across the greater Denver area. The record for the date is 70°F for Denver, which we've already bested by 3° officially at Denver International Airport this afternoon. So, is winter over? The good news is, it's certainly not over in the high country. Statewide snowpack is currently running at 144% of normal (the blue line below) which FAR outpaces any recent year (including the relatively go
Forecast Discussion
Storm Update: Track Uncertainty Remains, Models Lean East
Well, it's been quite a week tracking our next storm now moving into southern California. While it remains of interest, especially for those living across southern Colorado and the eastern plains, probabilities for a big snow event in Denver and the northern Front Range have dropped some. As we've discussed at length, it's all about the eventual track of this low. The EURO continues to be the most bullish with precipitation for the Denver area, and that's because it continues to track the low m
PM Update
Wednesday PM Update: Quick Shot of Snow Thursday; Update on Weekend Storm
It's been quite a stretch for the high country with huge snowfall over recent weeks. All that fresh powder as come at a price, avalanche danger is high to extremely high across north-central Colorado, with "Considerable Danger" listed for southern Colorado on the Colorado Avalanche Information Center site . If you're heading to the high country in the coming days, please be aware of these dangers, and also note that several resorts h
PM Update
Tuesday PM Update: One Eye on The Weekend
Highs Monday climbed into the mid 60s in Denver with strong downsloping winds wreaking havoc up and down the Front Range. Meanwhile, heavy snow continues to hammer mountain resorts with more on the way through the remainder of the week, with more wind for the Front Range into Wednesday. As we discussed in this week's State of the At
Denver Forecast
Monday PM Update: Interesting Setup Leading to Tough Call on Snow Potential
Here we are 24 hours removed from yesterday's SOTA , and the outlook for the remainder of the week remains uncertain. Models are producing quite a bit of snow for the mountains and immediate plains – but, each in different ways, and thus our trust in the models remains low for the time being. The EURO has been most consistent, producing about 0.3 - 0.5" QPF along the Front Range from Wednesday through Thursday. The GFS is bac
Snowfall Forecast
In the Weekend Battle of Rain vs Snow, Snow Likely Wins in Many Locations
So many ingredients have come together to make this weekend's storm a significant one in terms of how much moisture will fall. The Front Range has been consistently projected to receive 1.5" to 3" of total water by Monday when the storm slowly winds down. It has become increasingly clear that the majority of that water will fall as a heavy, slushy snow over the greater metro area and portions of the eastern plains. What remains to be seen at this point is where does the system ultimately stall
PM Update
Wednesday PM Update: Tracking Potential for Significant Spring Storm this Weekend
There's really not a whole lot of change in how things look today as compared to our update yesterday . The GFS (American model) continues to wobble with temperatures (currently showing little snow at lower elevations), and the EURO continues to hammer northeast Colorado with a big-time April snowstorm. It's still too early to say exactly how things are going to line up for any given location, especially at lower elevatio
Winter Storm
GFS Leans Snow as Weekend Forecast Continues to Evolve
We're continuing to track what looks like an active weekend of weather for the region as a large, upper level low will move into the southwestern United States and bring rain, snow, and severe storms to Colorado, Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska and Wyoming over the course of several days. Tuesday morning models A review of today's 6 am models tells us several things. To begin with, there is still a great deal of uncertainty surrounding this system and what its eventual impacts on t
Forecast Discussion
Midweek Plains Snow Looks Increasingly Likely
While fire danger is high and temperatures are warm today, we're still tracking big changes to the weather as early as Tuesday night across eastern Colorado. While a fair amount of uncertainty about the details remains, confidence continues to grow that a strong winter storm will impact the region from Tuesday night and on into Thursday, bringing the chance for heavy snowfall, wind, and much colder temperatures to the plains of Colorado. As we discussed in yesterday's State of the Atmosphere [/
Forecast Discussion
Another Toasty Weekend Ahead, But Changes for Next Week?
After weeks of unseasonably warm weather, it almost seems as though winter is long gone and we should instead be talking about summer heat and convective storms. March, however, has a sneaky way of suddenly delivering a wintry punch, just when you think there's no chance at all. As we've discussed at length, we fully expect(ed) March and April to deliver moisture (rain or (and) snow to Colorado), as the El Niño weakened and the western ridge finally began letting storms through. So far we've se
Long-range forecast
A Return to a More Active Storm Track For March?
Outside of the first few days of the month, February has been mostly a sleeper for winter weather across Colorado. Of course we saw some good snow in the foothills earlier this week , but otherwise it's been quite warm and mild across eastern Colorado. There have also been a few systems over recent weeks have kept enough snowfall going in the high country to keep basin snowpack at pretty healthy numbers all things considered
Snowfall Forecast
Saturday Evening Update: Initial Snowfall Forecast
What a day. What a week. We've so enjoyed you joining us this week in tracking our winter storm due in Sunday night and lingering into Tuesday across eastern Colorado. As we write this update, snowfall is falling across the urban corridor and northeast Plains. This is a nice preview of what's to come over the next several days, as snow becomes more widespread late Sunday night and continues off and on into Tuesday. A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for all of eastern Colorado, and goes into
Forecast Discussion
Saturday Afternoon Update: Another Look at Modeled QPF; Notes on the Forecast
After a very robust run of models last night and this morning, our confidence continues to grow in a major winter storm that will likely impact many people. So, while we track snowfall potential tonight and Sunday across eastern Colorado, here's an afternoon update on what we're calling the main event – the potential for heavy snowfall Sunday night through Tuesday. Right off the bat, I want to REALLY emphasize something...THE STORM IS STILL IN TH
Weather Models
Friday Night Models Coming In; Crunching Some Numbers
You've probably seen numerous graphics depicting how much snow we may see or may not see with this system over the course of the last week. Social media certainly has the market cornered in that regard lately. However, we at Weather5280 usually do not like to put out totals too early due to the delicate nature of our storms and the various things that impact their output. A LOT CAN CHANGE IN A VERY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. But, we recognize that many folks want more than just the word "significant