We've been a bit quiet, but there hasn't been much to report on with regard to the upcoming system either. Most of what we outlined on Monday remains true, though the paths to a big time snow at lower elevations are certainly far fewer this morning vs what we were seeing in guidance a few days ago. But so it goes. The storm track has been relatively stabl

Well, depending on who you are, it's either been a good or bad thing that you haven't heard much from us lately. Mother nature won't throw much our way lately – we touched on a few things ahead in our update on Sunday , we'll dig into that again at the bottom half of this write up. Latest Colorado snowpack numbers, and what’s on tap for the remainder of the monthTemperature

This hasn't exactly been a fun snowfall forecast to pin down. Some pretty wild up-and-downs in the data over recent days, with little agreement in the data on who sees what and when, with varying jet influences, upslope, and even marginal temperatures at times. This morning we think things look a bit clearer, and well, the first round of snow has already arrived across parts of the urban corridor and Palmer Divide – so let's see what to expect from the remainder of the day today and tonight.

It's September, so of course this means there's plenty of buzz around the latest hurricane in the Atlantic. Lee could very well become a category 5 hurricane as it slowly tracks west before making an eventual turn north and northeast next week. While the southeast is likely to escape the wrath of Lee, states north will be on alert for any potential impacts next week. With any luck the storm will stay fully out-to-sea. As always, you can track the latest forecasts for the tropics here: https://ww

Chilly air has moved back into Northeast Colorado this morning after a record-setting warm first half of the week. Temperatures are mainly in the 30s and 40s across NECO, with 40s and 50s this morning south of I-70. We won't do a whole lot better than this today, with temperatures gradually falling for most areas by mid-afternoon. We've already watched some heavy snow falling across parts of the high country, with even a bit of mixed precipitation across the far northern plains. Parts of the n

As is almost always the case, the cold front has arrived ahead of schedule this morning. Winds are out of the northeast now, with temperatures in the 20s and 30s across the plains and urban corridor. Denver International Airport warmed to 42°F briefly ahead of the front this morning, and will now remain in the low 30s through the remainder of the morning, with temperatures gradually falling into the 20s this afternoon and evening. We still expect bitter cold temperatures by Tuesday morning beh

First, thank you! We have the best, most thoughtful, and engaged readers in the region. All of your comments last night meant the world, and we are happy to report it's much harder to hear all the internet trolls this morning through all this snow! ❄️💨 While some areas haven't made it to forecast verification just yet, others have hit the low-end forecast and some, with still many hours of snow ahead today and into tonight.

I don't really know where to start tonight, so let's start with the the question I've been asked about 300 times today: Am I worried about our forecast? The answer is yes! But here's the thing, anyone that knows me knows it's ALWAYS a yes. I worry about every forecast probably way more than I should. I've been worried about this one since we started tracking it over a week ago. I worry when we forecast 1 - 3" and darn nobody cares. My quick hot take from today is something like the followi

It's always a bit of a coin toss on how much weight to give modeled total precipitation when dealing with the kind of cold we have in place this weekend. The best bet is to undercut the moisture that models forecast. Even still, with cold temperatures will come the higher snowfall ratio to give the appearance that things are wetter than they are. We'll see how that pans out. We went a bit heavier on totals than we may otherwise given the setup, but hoping the night and Sunday will get us whe

If you don't pay too much attention to the reality of how little snow has accumulated, it almost feels like a 'real storm' out there today. Temperatures have been in the teens and 20s all day, and the snow has been falling steadily since early this morning, it feels like winter. We're approaching 1.5" of snow here on the west side just after 1pm. We expect to add another 1/2" to 1" to that total through the remainder of the day, and perhaps not even that much for many of us. Here's the latest f

A wind event through the end of the week will spread across the Rocky Mountain and Northern High Plains regions to bring some wind gusts over 80 mph. The most significant wind will be in Colorado's northern mountains, as well as parts of Wyoming, Montana, Nebraska, and the Dakotas.

Strong wind is to move over the state, especially the plains, from Tuesday through Wednesday; high wind warnings in place for eastern Colorado. This is the same disturbance that is to spread some snowfall in the mountains, several inches in many cases. Here are the active alerts as of midday Tuesday: high wind warning for eastern Colorado and winter weather advisories in the mountains. The snow skips Denver, but not the wind or cold. Through midday Wednesday wind will be at its strongest. P

Not much change to what we discussed yesterday in today's data. Another mainly light snow event is on the way later this afternoon and into Monday night, which will bring at least pockets of accumulating snow to the Front Range and urban corridor for the third time in recent days. Our range of a Trace to 2" looks to hold for the most areas up and down the I-25 urban corridor. The "boom" potential, if you will, looks greatest south of I-70 in Denver and down across the western Palmer Divide whe

We continue to track the next round of snow set to move in later this afternoon across Eastern Colorado. Temperatures are hovering in the 20s as of midday, with a bit of sun poking through as well, but clouds and precipitation will slowly spread from Western Colorado across Eastern Colorado as the day progresses. The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the greater Denver metro area and Palmer Divide. This seems prudent given the potential for several inches of sno

We continue to track the chance of rain and snow that will arrive this evening to our area and stick with us into Tuesday. As we discussed last night, given temperatures and the speed of this system, we expect the greatest accumulation to occur west and south of Denver, though some accumulation in the city proper will be possible as well. If the changeover from rain to snow can occur earlier than anticipated, perhaps we see some high-end totals in the city as well – though at this time, that i

There's been a lot of excitement (good and bad) around some of the GFS modeled snowfall forecasts with the snow event tonight and tomorrow. While its been producing some impressive totals for not just Boulder and Fort Collins but the entire metro Denver area... just how likely is this to occur? For reference, below is its 18z forecast. It has 10 - 14" across the Denver area, with upwards of 15" for Boulder, and an east to west 8 - 12" up around Fort Collins: Crazy, right? MOST other data cont

For the Denver/Boulder/Fort Collins corridor a Winter Storm Warning goes into effect Thursday morning and remains in effect through Thursday night. For Castle Rock, and most of the Northeast Colorado Plains, a Blizzard Warning is in effect for the same period. This is not to say the Denver area won't see wind –– but the strongest sustained winds will likely be east of I-25 and across the Palmer Divide. Still, even for the Front Range urban corridor, the heavy snow and gusty winds will reduce vi

Everything's running about on schedule this morning as our upper level low begins its trek east across Southern Colorado, and our surface low establishes itself across Southeast Colorado through the afternoon. A look at radar this morning shows moisture pushing into East-Central and Northeast Colorado, with pockets of heavy snow across the Colorado Springs region, Palmer Divide, and greater Denver metro area. The bright greens in the animation below indicate the heaver precipitation rates. T

So far this system has played out just as expected –– delivering another good helping of snow for some, and largely skipping others altogether. The heaviest snowfall last night setup south of where many models had it. How many times did we reiterate the fact that the placement of that heavy snow was likely to change, and we wouldn't know for sure until it developed. We've been very forward about the uncertainty around this forecast, but hopefully conveyed the potential this setup had as well.

A very quick update this evening to first say "hooray!" as a nice round of snow showers have moved across the urban corridor this evening, bringing the first flakes of the year to some locales –– and some enormous ones at that! As of 8:15 the heaviest showers have pushed into Southeast Denver, and will continue to track southeast over the next hour or two before dissipating for the night: Another wave moves through on Thursday and with it perhaps a few more snow showers as well. The European

These systems that swing out of the deep Southwest and swing sharply north/northeast are not a lot of fun to pin down across Eastern Colorado. The tendency is for models to overdo snowfall –– we saw that today across the far Eastern Plains. They will very often accelerate as they turn north and leave us with very little snow, despite the anticipation. That said, often is not always, and sometimes they can deliver. Data today has been about as all over the place you'll ever see, even for aroun

Not too much change to discuss this morning from our update yesterday . Still tracking the chance of rain and show across Eastern Colorado from about midday today through Saturday evening. We are also still dealing with a huge amount of inconsistency in the data, so plenty of surprises are still possible with this one I suppose. Overall, the numbers we discussed in yesterday's post still look good. For

This has been a tiresome one. A low confidence system, with at times seemingly high-end potential, continues to fade before it's even really started. As we discussed in our update yesterday best dynamics will stay well south of the Denver area, and with that only light accumulation (if any at all) is expected across the metro area through Monday. Colorado Springs remains under an advisory, but it too will be at the northern edge of heaviest snow it seems. Models keep pushing back start times an

A top 10 latest snowfall event is wrapping up as the storm system clears the state after leaving nearly two feet of snow on parts of the Palmer Divide. For Denver, 3.4 inches puts the late season snow on the top 10 list for biggest this late in the season. The largest late-season event was in 1950 when a two-day total on the 26th and 27th came in at over 10 inches. Compare this to the over 19 inch total from Black Forest and over 13 inch total from Monument (most in 24 hours since 2006 and 201

Since last night's update , I see no reason to change the going forecast. Enough energy had arrived this morning for some snow to form in the expected area of the Palmer Ridge, and also on the Northeastern Plains: This area will continue and then will be replaced by the stronger snow band this afternoon, also as discussed last night. This snowband will impact some of us from between noon and 6pm - more sp