A couple months ago, we were telling you that there was potential for a La Niña episode, before the year was done . While we were pretty sure about some of the signals, ENSO forecasting this time of year is always tough. Models struggle in the spring, and this is affectionately called the "spring predictability barrier". We've seen ENSO events show up in the modeling only to disappear as we enter into summer. Howe
The recent weak La Niña episode that prevailed since last fall, has been all but erased. The animation below shows the sea surface temperature anomaly trend during the past several weeks. Blue colors mean colder than average sea surface temperature anomalies, while orange/red means warmer than average sea surface temperature anomalies. Notice how all of the blue color in the ENSO regions has pretty much disappeared. At the same time, we have seen some much warmer than average water build off
In a good year, August can be one of the wetter months of the year for many of us in Colorado. Right on schedule, we've had a recent surge of monsoon moisture. This is always a good thing, especially when the amount of flash flooding we've seen of late has been relatively low. Below is a look at rainfall totals for the past three weeks. Overall, a pretty good look for the state. Northwest Colorado is hurting the most, with those of us living along the northern I-25 urban corridor also missing o
La Niña Transition Let's see how our transition from El Niño to La Niña is going. We've talked about this a lot during the past several months , and here is a look at the current sea surface temperature anomalies: The blue shading that you see extending off the west coast of South America represents cooling taking place in that part of the Pacific Ocean. However, while that is happening the rest of the Pacific Ocean is still quite warm. This is especia
If you frequent Weather5280 this the title of this post is not breaking news. In fact, we've been talking about this transition for several months. Today I wanted to provide an update for those that are interested, and show what history and various computer models are suggesting. First, let's look at the recent sea surface temperature anomaly changes over the tropical Pacific Ocean: The animation above shows the changes that have taken place at the surface since early February. Notice th
Let the great meltdown begin! After a great snowstorm this past week, many folks are wanting some warmer weather. Well, if you are one of those people that wants warmer weather, this is certainly going to be the weather pattern for you. In fact, it is likely going to be one of those weather patterns that produces some of the nicest weather we've seen in a while. Why do I think this? Let's take a look... GEFS Ensemble Mean 500mb Maps: Tuesday: Thursday: Saturday: Monday: Wednesday: Fri
JAMSTEC Update It has been a while since we have chatted about the JAMSTEC model and its forecast for the next several months. There is a reason for this. During the past several months, it has been forecasting colder than normal temperatures for Eastern Colorado. We've lamented in the past about why we didn't think this would happen (current strong El Niño and positive PDO), but figure the model was worth a look again. Why? Because some of what the model has been spitting out may be spot on...
Winds up to 100mph recently, and the windy weather to continue La Niña patterns are great wind producers, especially for Colorado and the plains states. The recent wind resulted in tree damage and wildfires from the Pacific Northwest to Oklahoma. Peak wind gusts were recorded at 100 mph near Frisco, Colorado Saturday morning and 102mph at Gold Hill in Boulder County Monday night. We have had wind gusts well over 100 mph earlier this winter, and even last winter. The strongest ever recorded in t