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Transitioning from El Niño to La Niña and what that could mean for spring
We've been locked into El Niño conditions since last spring. Sea surface temperature anomalies have been much above average in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, but have recently really started to cool off. The El Niño peaked in late December and early January, and continues to weaken. Here is the equatorial sea surface temperature anomaly animation, during the past 90 days. This graphic represents the depth (0-450 meters) and east (120 degrees E) to west ( 80 degrees west) across the equatorial P
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Weather5280 Insider: Weather outlook for December
December is upon us and the first week looks anything but wintry for much of the Front Range and Plains. The snowpack certainly isn't looking very good at the moment but the season is early and we shall see some progress in parts of the West this month. The snowpack to close out November is shown here, lots of red and orange on that map for well-below normal snowpack. In order to recover, a negative-phased Arctic Oscillation can help give snow to the Central and Northern Rockies. Although we m
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Weather5280 Insider: November outlook features a mixed bag of warm and cold, bias toward below average precipitation
For many folks living across the northern High Plains, Intermountain West, and across Colorado, the snow season is in full swing after last week's storm blanketed the region in some cases upwards of a foot of snow. The image below shows season to date snowfall, with most of Colorado having picked up so snow in October, as well as a good helping of snow across Wyoming, Montana, and North Dakota. The cold associated with this past weekend's snow storm has been impressive too. Many record lows we
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El Niño forecast discussion and update, July 2023
It has been a little over a month since we last looked at our old friend , so it's time to see what the (incoming?) El Niño is up to. The graphic below shows current sea surface temperature anomalies, where yellows/reds indicate above average surface temperatures and blues below average. A few things to note, before I show you what it looked like earlier this year: 1. The warmest water in the ENSO region is centere
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Medium range forecast: When will things dry out?
We all know it's only a matter of time. Even as daily storms have interrupted life's plans at times in recent months, all of us situated along the Front Range and high plains know to accept water falling from the sky with open arms when it comes and not to take it for granted. In so many ways, June picked up where May left off. Great moisture continues up and down the Rockies with those surplus precipitation anomalies expanding further into the drought-stricken plains in recent weeks as well:
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Monthly weather outlook: A look at the remainder of May and on into June
The past 30 days have proved to be wetter than recent times in some areas, but not for everyone. Folks in far Southeast Colorado, Southwest Kansas, southward into the Texas Panhandle really benefited from a late April storm. While it was by no means a drought buster, it was certainly a big help. You can see that in the map below, with greens indicating above average precipitation over the last 30 days, and browns below average. The Pacific Ocean has been warming up too. The equatorial Pacific
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Drought impacts ahead, spring runoff a factor
Drought will remain a significant factor for many on the Plains through April and the months ahead, meanwhile plentiful snowfall will benefit the Western U.S. and Northern Plains. Let's start with the current drought monitor, released today. Exceptional Drought conditions, the warmer color, covers parts of Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas. That's a snapshot of conditions during the past week. Here's how some of those values have changed during the past month. Although drought does remain
Long-range forecast
March Outlook: Temperature and precipitation pattern for the month
For many, March came in like a lion – as the saying goes. Plus, there's a lot of media attention on another "Polar Vortex" event on the way. So what does the remainder of the month look like? Let's take a look at the atmosphere recently, modeling, and my analog year comparisons to build out an outlook for the next few weeks. First, the Polar Vortex doesn't hit us with anything. The Polar Vortex is a feature of the Stratosphere, miles above the surface of the Earth. When it changes behavior it c
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La Niña rapidly weakens, what that means for our weather as we move through February and into spring
As I write this update, I remain most interested in what happens to La Niña this month. During January we saw a rapid warming of the sea surface temperatures, especially in the 1.2 ENSO region and I anticipate further warming with another MJO wave to move into that region this month. Let's begin with this topic before turning to the month's outlook for precipitation and temperatures. Here are the sea surface temperatures averaged from January 20th through February 4th, 2023. Colder than normal
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January's weather outlook across Colorado and the region
January starts off with a bang across the West with a steady supply of moisture hitting California and then fanning out to surrounding states, Colorado included. We recently wrote about the next wave of moisture adding to flooding issues for California, and the latest snowpack numbers there: Atmospheric River delivering torrential rain, snow, and wind to California; significant flooding possible this weekOne storm is not a drought buster, however, the current extended pattern in place over Ca
La Niña
La Niña update: Weakest SOI in over two years
La Niña is now the weakest it has been in over two years, using the SOI (Southern Oscillation Index) index for monthly values since 1950. The SOI is one measurement tool for calculating the strength of La Niña atmospherically, in this case using sea level pressure values. How does this change the winter outlook, or does it? I discuss that in this video and will present a research image below. Here's the latest monthly SOI data including November to show you the strength relative to all other p
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La Niña update and early fall/winter outlook
La Niña is still alive and well. The sea surface temperature anomaly animation for the past 90 days not only shows La Niña being maintained, but it is actually getting a bit stronger. While the North Pacific has warmed from late this spring, the central/equatorial Pacific has remained quite cool. The animation below shows what is happening beneath the surface across the equatorial Pacific: Simply put, the graphic shows ocean depth down to 450 meters across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Those
La Niña
July La Niña and monsoon update
Plenty to sort through with this update, and based on what I'm seeing we have a lot riding on it too. First, let's look at what La Niña and rest of the global sea surface temperature anomalies have been doing, for the past 90 days. 1. Despite La Niña being very much alive, it has been weakening a bit recently. Notice less blue shading along the equatorial Pacific. 2. The colder than average water that was in the Gulf of Alaska and along the West Coast of the US has also been warming
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March storm track could mean more of the same, favors northern tier of U.S.
The winter was interesting in a couple of ways: the strength and duration of the ridging over the West, and the number of stretched polar vortex events impacting the East. This pattern does break down a bit in March, but does not appear to change quickly enough to alter the late-winter pattern as we start spring. Analog years suggest colder than normal conditions across the West, which spread onto the plains. Global models have struggled with the placement of coldest temperatures this winter,
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February, 2022 La Niña update and what that may mean for precipitation patterns as we head toward spring and summer
We are midway through the winter, and with that it's time drop you a note about what La Niña is up to. First, a look at SST (sea surface temperature) anomalies across the equatorial Pacific: The above animation runs from early November through late January. Notice the blue shading really shrinking across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. This is occurring at the surface of the ocean, and shows those anomalies not only becoming smaller, but also of less magnitude. The animation below sho
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Winter outlook 2021 - 2022
In the early part of September we released our initial long range outlook for the cold season which is now upon us. As promised, today we revisit that post a bit, will see what's changed and what's stayed the same, and issue our annual winter (season) outlook for Denver, Colorado, and the region. In most respects, our thoughts from a month ago have c
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Extended outlook features a boost of monsoonal moisture for the south and a drier outlook north
No real surprises in June as the pattern, generally speaking, held true to prior months. Wet areas generally remained wet, and dry areas dry. This is especially true for the west coast (which remained quite dry) and places along the immediate Front Range, which remained wetter than average. With that, we see drought conditions continue to worsen across much of the west, but areas across Eastern Colorado and Western Kansas remain drought-free. The most recent Drought Monitor was published on
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Monsoon or "nonsoon" this summer?
I want to immediately couch this post as a post that contains quite a bit of uncertainty. However, it's time to take a stab at a forecast that involves whether or not we monsoon this summer. The map below adeptly explains what are referring to , when we talk about the monsoon. The past couple of summers, we have largely missed out on the monsoon. The maps below show how dry the past two July/August periods have been, which is the core of the "monsoon season" for the Southwest US. 2019 July-Aug
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Winter outlook 2020 - 2021
An early season snow this September gave the illusion that winter may come early this year, much like it did in 2019. This was clearly not to be, with exceptional warmth and drought continuing to be the dominant weather pattern across the greater region. This, of course, should come as no surprise if you've been following our long-range outlooks over the last year or so. A
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It's August, it's hot, it's far too early to look ahead to winter –– but let's do just that
It's been a long, hot, and dry summer. It was well analoged and well forecast. We now near the end of meteorological summer, and head for a winter that will at least in part be driven by a likely La Niña . A look at current sea surface temperature anomalies show still plenty of heat content globally, but also the colder than average (La Niña) signal across the equatorial Pacific. As
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August outlook includes little moisture
La Nina in the works doesn't help our chances of a wet August, and the state of the Northern Pacific and Atlantic Oceans make the wet signal even weaker for the month. Brian Bledsoe laid the framework for our dry outlook in his La Nina update earlier this week . Let's dig into a few other correlations. For August, precipitation correlates most highly with PNA, SOI, and PDO ocean-atm
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July outlook: temperature pattern to shift but precipitation likely to remain much the same
For much of the region June's weather pattern will remain for July, however, a wetter change is possible for the Northern High Plains. Let's start with June's data. Much of the Central United States has been warmer than average this month, as well as drier than average. This is to be expected, in previous posts we've discussed at length the overall ocean-atmosphere teleconnections that spell this out for us. Below we see temperature anomalies over the last 28 days, showing temperatures well
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A look at the latest seasonal model data and some thoughts on this year's monsoon
The latest EURO Seasonal forecast came out today, and it really isn't a great deal different from what we've been advertising. You know we've been concerned about drought for awhile now, and with a budding La Niña , we remain pessimistic on many fronts when it comes to rain this summer, and moisture this fall. Here is the latest sea surface temperature anomaly forecast from the model. That is, where its forecasting above
El Niño
El Niño Has Reestablished and Might Stick Around For Awhile
The weather we have experienced for the past several weeks lines up very well with what we thought winter would be like... a more active finish than start and middle. During the past 60 days, areas along the Palmer Divide / I-70 Corridor have benefited the most –– running well above average for precipitation during this time: Most areas of Colorado have received at least average moisture, with a few small exceptions. Mountain areas have also been doing well, especially the parched San Juans a
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Winter Outlook 2018-19 Released for Weather5280 Insiders
Yesterday we released our winter outlook for the 2018-19 season . If you are not an Insider, we hope that you'll consider signing up today . Becoming a Weather5280 Insider means you are helping to support the daily content on Weather5280.com. We are so grateful to all those who have made the commitment of $5/month to keep this project going for another year. If you are curious to follow along with our long-ra