As we head deeper into July we thought it time to give an update on the progress of the monsoon. If you've been frequenting the site, you know that we not only expected the monsoon to be a late arrival, but also a diminished one. So far, there has not been any real monsoon signal. The graphic below shows is a precipitable water forecast, for the next two weeks. Basically, brown means a drier atmosphere, and green means a moist atmosphere. The green that shows up across Colorado and the surroun

Most of you are weather nuts and follow the weather very closely, which we love. I think it's fair to say, debate if you will, that modeling during 2023 has struggled at times with the day three to seven, and beyond, forecasts. That may not be fair. What may be more appropriate is our expectations for models to be accurate at those ranges exceeds expectations and to see storms "dry up" before hitting Denver and the Front Range is part of the process. I think both of my statements have merit.

As I write this update, I remain most interested in what happens to La Niña this month. During January we saw a rapid warming of the sea surface temperatures, especially in the 1.2 ENSO region and I anticipate further warming with another MJO wave to move into that region this month. Let's begin with this topic before turning to the month's outlook for precipitation and temperatures. Here are the sea surface temperatures averaged from January 20th through February 4th, 2023. Colder than normal

Just as a refresher, the MJO or Madden-Julian Oscillation is an eastward moving disturbance of clouds, rainfall, winds, and pressure that traverses the planet in the tropics and returns to its initial starting point in 30 to 60 days, on average. There can be multiple MJO events within a season. So, the MJO is best described as intraseasonal tropical climate variability (i.e. varies on a week-to-week basis). It is different from El Niño or La Niña, because those phenomena remain stationary with

Pattern change means moisture chances will increase for Colorado You hear us talk about various global teleconnections and oscillations, but the Madden-Julian Oscillation is one of the most important. We've talked about it many times before and recently reported that the very weak MJO signal late this summer was likely responsible for our failed monsoon . However, the MJO is starting to come to life and could have rather large im

Before we move into October, here is a thought on the late summer: I have to admit that there were a lot of things I thought would happen this year with the warm Pacific and subsequent El Niño, but a failing monsoon wasn't one of them. Historically, an El Niño will enhance the monsoon season for Colorado and certainly doesn't scream drought. However, I attribute the "monsoon fail" to a very weak MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation ) signal and one that simply got stuck in a rut that perpetu

After such an amazing finish to February and start to March , a lot of folks are wondering if the wintry stretch is going to continue for the spring. Well, if you've been reading this site since late summer/fall, you know our thoughts already. Yes, we will likely remain active. However, during the next several days to a week we are going to get a significant break from the winter weather. Warmer and drier weather w

While central Colorado has seen bouts of Arctic air and generally light snow, we really haven't had a big storm system threaten us. That's not too out of the ordinary for January. January and February are usually pretty quiet times, but occasionally can surprise. So far, Denver has tallied 19.4" of snow this season which is basically normal. Farther south in Colorado Springs, 13.1" of snow has fallen, which is about 2" below normal. Bottom line, while this winter reall

We talk about a variety of atmospheric oscillations that govern our weather, but haven't yet talked about one of the most important ones: The Madden-Julian Oscillation or MJO. Simply put, the MJO deals with thunderstorm development (convection) in the tropics over the western Pacific Ocean and Indian Ocean. It usually cycles about every 30 to 60 days, is most active during weak La Niña or La Nada (neither El Niño or La Niña) events, or du