Southeast Colorado
Southeast Colorado Long Range Forecast, December 2018
As of right now, most of Southeast Colorado is experiencing some sort of dryness. The worst of it is located mainly west of a La Junta to Kim line. The past 90 days have been wetter than average for most of the area, with lesser moisture totals farther west. If nothing else, this has kept the drought from expanding eastward... El Niño Update We are still looking at El Niño conditions evolving across the Pacific Ocean. The maps below shows the evolution during the past few months on the oc
Southeast Colorado
Southeast Colorado Long Range Forecast Update, July 2018
The last few months have NOT been kind to most of Southeast Colorado. The map below shows how much above and below average we are, for the last three months. Green and blue are above average, with brown and red being below average... Per what we thought months ago, areas south of I-70 were going to struggle. Most of Southeast Colorado remains in extreme drought...especially those areas west of a Lamar to Springfield line. ENSO Status Now that we are beyond the "spring predictability barrie
Southeast Colorado
Southeast Colorado Long Range Forecast Update, April, 2018
No surprises here... Most of Southeast Colorado has been dealing with extremely dry weather for the past several months. The map below shows precipitation percentage of average for the past 60 days. That's right, some areas are at 0-10% of average! What does that mean in terms of drought? It means severe to extreme drought is a growing problem... Most of Colorado is seeing moderate to extreme drought, with the worst of it across the southern part of the state. La Niña Update As you can
Southeast Colorado
Southeast Colorado Long Range Forecast Update, February 6th, 2018
La Niña has been ruling the roost, as we expected it to back in the fall. It is alive and well in the Pacific Ocean, as you can see from the map below. All of that "blue and green" off the West Coast of South America is water that is cooler than average. This represents the La Niña from a sea surface temperature anomaly perspective. Another area that I think has gotten far less publicity than the La Niña, is the warmer than average water off the west/southwest coast of California. It is warmer
Southeast Colorado
Southeast Colorado Long Range Forecast Update, November 1st, 2017
A look at the oceans shows that the Pacific has cooled considerably in 2017, and we have technically entered a La Niña episode. All of that "blue and green" off the West Coast of South America is indicative of cooler than average water and represents a developing La Niña. It looks like a weak La Niña episode is going to be an influence for this upcoming winter, and possibly last into spring. The graphic below shows several models and their ENSO forecast. The yellow line is the mean of all of
Southeast Colorado
Southeast Colorado Long Range Forecast Update, September 1st, 2017
As we approach the seasonal change and reflect on the summer, it has been a great summer of rain for Southeast Colorado. Check out the map below which shows the last 90 days of rainfall. The Pikes Peak Region and the Palmer Divide are almost always a hot spot for summer rain. But to see the Southeast Plains get in on the act, was truly great. Many 90 day totals exceeding annual average totals and by quite a bit too. So as of right now, we are in great shape heading into the fall season. We wi
Southeast Colorado
Southeast Colorado Long Range Forecast Update, June 2nd, 2017
The spring has been very kind to most of us when it comes to moisture. This was something we thought would happen when we did our last update in mid April. I know that the epic blizzard back in late April really did a number on some folks, but it sure beats the alternative. An alternative that included drought, blowing dirt, and failed crops. Southeast Colorado weather is extreme, it always has been and always will be. Here is the total precipitation for the last 60 days: I can't underscore
Southeast Colorado
Southeast Colorado Long Range Forecast Update, April 15th, 2017
Current Status Thanks to a very active weather pattern that got going around March 22nd, much of Southeast Colorado has picked up some very nice moisture. Granted, some areas are doing better than others, but it is a lot better than it has been. The map below shows total liquid moisture during the past 30 days. Rule of thumb, if you put good moisture in the ground during the late winter and early spring, you SHOULDN'T have to worry about drought development later. The Oceans and El Niño T
Southeast Colorado
Southeast Colorado Update, March 20th, 2017
A much anticipated and pretty well advertised pattern change is going to start impacting Southeast Colorado late this week. I want to preface this update by saying...THE DEVIL IS ALWAYS IN THE DETAILS WHEN IT COMES TO HOW MUCH MOISTURE WE SEE OR DON'T SEE. I KNOW WE NEED RAIN/SNOW DESPERATELY, BUT WE ARE NOT ABOUT HYPE. SO, IT BEHOOVES YOU TO STAY CURRENT WITH THE FORECAST AS THERE WILL LIKELY BE CHANGES. Forecast as it stands right now... EURO Model Upper Level Weather Pattern Tuesday Mornin
Southeast Colorado
Southeast Colorado Update, March 9th, 2017: The Next 10 Days
As we've been saying for awhile, the weather pattern just isn't good right now. This is especially true for Southeast Colorado. The storm track is favoring areas much too far to the north and east, and this isn't going to change in the near term. The map below shows the GFS Model prediction for total moisture during the next 10 days: Notice that areas along and north of I-70 may get a bit of moisture, but certainly nothing significant. Locations farther south, will likely be shut out. In fact
Southeast Colorado
Southeast Colorado Update February 9th, 2017
Just a quick update on our storm system this weekend. Most of the good energy with this storm will pass too far south to give us much in the way of meaningful moisture. However, some computer models do bring some light accumulating snow to Southeast Colorado late Saturday night into Sunday. The GFS Model pictured below shows snowfall potential during that time... Thursday Morning Model Run Thursday Midday Model Run Just wanted to show you the differences in the model runs. I still think it
Southeast Colorado
Southeast Colorado Update February 6th, 2017
Weather has been mild, windy and dry lately for Southeast Colorado. Plus, we have to get through a few more windy, mild, and high fire danger days this week. While I am not overly excited for the storm that could impact us this weekend, it at least gives us something to watch. Below is the upper level pattern forecast from the EURO Model... Sunday AM Monday AM Tuesday AM Wednesday AM You can see a slow moving storm exiting the Desert Southwest from late weekend through the middle of nex
Southeast Colorado
Southeast Colorado Update January 17th, 2017: February - April Outlook
The weak La Niña episode that prevailed since late summer has all but been erased. The sea surface temperature anomaly map below clearly shows not pronounced La Niña episode occurring. However, there are some slightly cool anomalies just west of South America: The other thing I would like you to notice is that the sea surface temperature anomaly pattern in the North Pacific is tiered. From north to south...warm, cool, warm, slightly cool. I believe this gradient or tiered pattern is responsib
Southeast Colorado
January 14th, 2017: Storm Update
If you've been following us, you know there is some serious model disagreement with this storm. The GFS basically doesn't think much of this storm. The Canadian Model does better for Southeast Colorado, and the latest NAM is doing better too: NAM Model Snowfall Potential Canadian Model Snowfall Potential While the Canadian Model does not agree with the EURO Model, the NAM and EURO are in pretty good agreement. This storm won't be a cold one, and there will likely be a rain/ice/snow mix for
Southeast Colorado
January 11th, 2017: Potential Storm Update
Well folks, I'm sick of talking about the wind. So let's talk about a potential storm, that COULD deliver some much needed moisture to the region. Models are still wrestling with timing and exact storm track, and that is to be expected. However, most of the global models (especially the GFS and ECMWF) are in agreement that a storm of some size will impact the Western High Plains and Southern Plains. Here, we'll just focus on Southeast Colorado. GFS Model 6hr Total Precipitation, Precipitation T
Southeast Colorado
Southeast Colorado Update December 30th, 2016: Wintry Pattern Next Week
Since the Christmas Day storm, we've had several days of uneventful weather. That is about to change next week. The pattern is setting up to get cold, and stay cold. The maps below show the expected temperature trend and the transition as arctic air makes its presence felt. Midday Monday Midday Tuesday Midday Wednesday Midday Thursday Midday Friday Not only is the pattern going to get cold, but it will stay cold. Right now, the coldest weather looks to take hold after Tuesday. What a
Southeast Colorado
Southeast Colorado Update, December 13th, 2016: More Arctic Air...Snow Possible Too
Here comes another shot of Arctic air folks. The maps below show temperature are warmer than average, with blue/purple below average. Friday Morning Friday Evening Saturday Morning Saturday Evening Sunday Morning Pretty easy to see that not only does this shot of Arctic air mean business, but it is going to impact A LOT of people. Temperatures will be well below zero for many areas (especially Saturday night and early Sunday), and that is not taking into account
Southeast Colorado
Southeast Colorado Dec, Jan, Feb Update: November 23rd, 2016
November has been MUCH warmer than average, and mainly drier than average. However, a storm that moved through on November 22nd did produce pockets of decent rain in the Arkansas Valley. However, we need something more widespread and moisture chances that are more frequent ot buck the dry trend. Drought creep is certainly been doing its work... Drought Monitor November 16th Total Precipitation Last 30 Days We are still in a weak La Niña episode and will likely remain that way through the wi
High Plains
November 11th, Update: The Next 10 Days
It is no secret that rain and snow have been very hit or miss across the Western United States. One can see that from the map below: Total Precipitation Past 30 Days Northern California and the Pacific Northwest have received some great moisture, as have parts of New Mexico and Texas. However, most of the Western High Plains has remained parched. Because of this, drought continues to expand: Given what lies ahead during the next couple of weeks, the drought should continue to worsen across
Southeast Colorado
Southeast Colorado Update, October 28, 2016
During the course of the past week, the state has really suffered in the moisture department. In fact, most of us were hard pressed to have cloud cover let alone rain or snow. Southeast Colorado saw a few isolated showers, but it didn't amount to much in the way of moisture: Here is this week's latest drought report showing another increase in the drought coverage of the state which is now more than half of Colorado. Going through the next 14 days, or so, we are looking at an overall trend
Southeast Colorado
Southeast Colorado Update, October, 2016
Southeast Colorado has been out of the drought for a couple years now. However, we know how quickly drought can develop if we get into an unfavorable pattern. So, let's break down what we thing will happen in the next few months. As of right now, we have a developing/weak La Niña that hasn't fully coupled with the atmosphere. In fact, it may not couple with the atmosphere. Why is that oceanic/atmospheric coupling important? Because it is that coupling that produces the usual impact of a La Niña
Southeast Colorado
August 30th, 2016: Long Range Forecast Update
CFSv2 Model Precipitation Forecast September (blue = wetter than normal while green and brown = drier than normal): NMME Precipitation Forecast (green=wetter than normal while brown=drier than normal) September: October: November: December: It is interesting that the CFSv2 Model and the NMME have different thoughts about what lies ahead for September. The CFSv2 has a dry pocket over Southeast Colorado, while the NMME continues the flow of monsoon moisture from the southwest. I d
Colorado Weather
Denver's Precipitation Well Above Normal; Latest on Colorado Drought
Month-to-date precipitation totals across Colorado are impressive, particularly across eastern Colorado. May normally sees about 2.12" of precipitation in Denver making it the city's wettest month on average . Through the first 20 days of the month this year DIA has recorded 3.37" of precipitation, which is actually less than much of the metro area which has seen between 4 - 6" of precipitation this month. Surrou
Flooding Rains Hit Drought-Stricken Southeast Colorado
Drought recovery across southeast Colorado comes at a price. The parched earth struggles to handle the rapid heavy rainfall like we saw last night, leading to enhanced flooding threats and insult to injury to farmers and ranchers in the area. Heavy rains brought dangerous flash flooding to much of Colorado Saturday, including some of the hardest hit drought areas of our state. The NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service’s precipitation analysis estimates that anywhere from a half inch to ove