Texas Long Range Outlook, December 2018
As of right now, virtually all of Texas is drought free. This is certainly great news, especially as we head into winter. The past 90 days have either been average or much above average in terms of precipitation for Texas. This is especially true for West/Central Texas. El Niño Update We are still looking at El Niño conditions evolving across the Pacific Ocean. The maps below shows the evolution during the past few months on the ocean surface, as well as beneath the surface. Given the
Texas Long Range Forecast Update, July, 2018
Most of Texas has been drier than average, during the last 90 days. There have been some exceptions, but not many. The map below shows how much above and below average we are, for the last three months. Green and blue are above average, with brown and red being below average... At the very least, areas in the Texas Panhandle have seen some recent rain and have relaxed the drought a bit. ENSO Status Now that we are beyond the "spring predictability barrier", most models agree that a weak to
Texas Long Range Forecast Update, April, 2018
Truly one of the more polarizing state maps you will see. East Texas is wet and West/Northwest Texas is VERY dry. The map below shows precipitation percentage of average for the past 60 days. That's right, some areas are at 0-10% of average! What does that mean in terms of drought? It means severe to extreme drought is a growing problem... Most of Texas is seeing moderate to extreme drought, with the worst of it across the Panhandle. In fact, the far northeast part of the Panhandle is tech
Texas Long Range Forecast Update, February 6th, 2018
La Niña has been ruling the roost, as we expected it to back in the fall. It is alive and well in the Pacific Ocean, as you can see from the map below. All of that "blue and green" off the West Coast of South America is water that is cooler than average. This represents the La Niña from a sea surface temperature anomaly perspective. Another area that I think has gotten far less publicity than the La Niña, is the warmer than average water off the west/southwest coast of California. It is warmer
Texas Long Range Forecast Update, November 1st, 2017
A look at the oceans shows that the Pacific has cooled considerably in 2017, and we have technically entered a La Niña episode. All of that "blue and green" off the West Coast of South America is indicative of cooler than average water and represents a developing La Niña. It looks like a weak La Niña episode is going to be an influence for this upcoming winter, and possibly last into spring. The graphic below shows several models and their ENSO forecast. The yellow line is the mean of all of
Texas Long Range Forecast Update, September 1st, 2017
After the unbelievable rainfall associated with Hurricane Harvey, we could certainly use some dry time in Southeast Texas. Farther west, there are actually some areas that could use some rain, especially across southwest Texas. The good news is that aside from the catastrophic flooding in the southeast part of the state, most of Texas is in good shape. Rainfall for the past 90s days shown below. ENSO Status Right now, it looks like we will likely be in neither El Niño or La Niña for the fo
Hurricane Harvey: A Resource Guide
Hurricane Harvey threatens to make landfall in Texas as the first major hurricane to make landfall in the United States since hurricane Wilma in October of 2005. Harvey, which has intensified rapidly over the last 24 hours, is now a category 1 hurricane with sustained winds of 85mph, and is expected to further intensify as it moves toward the Texas coast – potentially as a major hurricane – early Saturday. Harvey not only poses a threat with damaging wind, but is forecast to bring incredible
Texas Long Range Forecast Update, June 2nd, 2017
The spring has been very kind to most of us when it comes to moisture. This was something we thought would happen, when we did our last update in mid April.Here is the total precipitation for the last 60 days: I can't underscore enough how important late winter and spring moisture is in keeping drought from developing and spreading. Currently, we aren't seeing any major drought issues in Texas. Some areas a bit drier than others, but nothing huge. Recent rains in some of these places will als
Texas Long Range Forecast Update, April 15th, 2017
Current Status Thanks to a very active weather pattern that got going around March 22nd, much of Texas has picked up some very nice moisture. Granted, some areas are doing better than others, but it is a lot better than it has been. The driest areas are pretty small and favor the far western and southern parts of the state. Otherwise, things are in pretty good shape... The map below shows total liquid moisture during the past 30 days. The Oceans and El Niño The map above shows current sea
Texas Update, March 20th, 2017
A much anticipated and pretty well advertised pattern change is going to start impacting many of the Plains states...including Texas. However, it looks like this first storm may go a touch too far north to benefit most of the state. That said, some areas will still get some moisture... Forecast as it stands right now... EURO Model Upper Level Weather Pattern Tuesday Morning Wednesday Morning Nothing to worry about as upper level ridging takes hold, and we'll be very quiet and mild through
Texas Update, March 9th, 2017
Texas is still doing pretty well, and avoiding the more widespread drought to the north and northwest. Areas of abnormal dryness continue to expand a bit, but nothing terrible at this time. However, the longer we go without moisture the worse it will get...and fast. The map below (GFS Model) shows the expected total moisture during the next 10 days. Notice that areas of East Texas are in line to get some moisture. Areas farther west and especially northwest, will likely get shut out. In fact
Texas Update February 13th, 2017
Nice rain coming to much of Texas during the next couple of days. We've been chatting about this for awhile now, so it shouldn't come as a shock. The image below is from the morning run of the GFS Model. It shows total expected rainfall from now through early Wednesday. Some really good moisture for much of Texas, AND for the southern half of drought stricken Oklahoma. More also appears likely by next weekend. A bit of snow may also fall in the Panhandle, but accumulations appear pretty unlik
Texas Update February 9th, 2017
Just a quick update on the pattern change coming to Texas next week. We advertised this trend a few days ago, and it still looks on track. In fact, here is a look at the latest GFS Model 10 day total precipitation forecast: Virtually all of that rain falls from Monday through Wednesday. Notice that some of the rain totals reflected in the model are in excess of 2 inches. Plus, we will likely have some snow to talk about in Eastern New Mexico and West Texas. The GFS Model morning and midday run
Texas Update February 6th, 2017:
Weather has been mild and dry for awhile in Texas. However, that trend is likely going to come to an end pretty soon. By this weekend, a storm will enter the picture. While the exact details are uncertain, here is the upper level pattern forecast from the EURO Model. Sunday AM Monday AM Tuesday AM Wednesday AM You can see a slow moving storm exiting the Desert Southwest from late weekend through the middle of next week. This would mean a pretty substantial rain for most of Texas...and o
Texas Update January 17th, 2017: February, March, April Outlook
The weak La Niña episode that prevailed since late summer has all but been erased. The sea surface temperature anomaly map below clearly shows not pronounced La Niña episode occurring. However, there are some slightly cool anomalies just west of South America: The other thing I would like you to notice is that the sea surface temperature anomaly pattern in the North Pacific is tiered. From north to south...warm, cool, warm, slightly cool. I believe this gradient or tiered pattern is responsib
January 11th, 2017: Potential Storm Update
Impressive storm on the way for the Southern Plains, starting later Friday and continuing through early next week. Strong low pressure will eject out of the Desert Southwest, and have substantial moisture to work with. Right now it is a bit early to tell exactly how it will track, but it should mean some much needed moisture for much of Texas. It could also mean some snow or ice for portions of the Panhandle. The map below is the total expected liquid from the upcoming storm, as forecasted by th
Texas Update December 31st, 2016: Wintry Pattern for Some of Texas
While the upcoming week of weather doesn't look as nasty as it once did for Texas, it is still going to get chilly. Some areas will also pick up some rain, and some snow. Before we get to that, here is a look at the temperature ANOMALY (departure from average) trend for the week: Monday Evening Tuesday Evening Wednesday Evening Thursday Evening Friday Evening As you can see, it will get colder during midweek and likely stay cold for a while. It won't be brutally cold, but certainly a
December 1st: Much Needed Moisture Coming to Most of Texas
For the most part, Texas remains in pretty good shape in the moisture department. However, things have been drying out for most of East Texas and for parts of the Panhandle. Right now, the worst area of dryness resides in the eastern part of the state as shown by the Drought Monitor: While not in terrible shape just yet, some areas could certainly use a drink. Well, they are going to get one starting Friday and lasting through the weekend. The map below shows total rainfall potential ending Tu
Texas Dec, Jan, Feb Update: November 23rd, 2016
As of right now, MOST of Texas is in pretty good shape with moisture. This is mainly due to a storm from a few weeks ago. However, parts of The Panhandle and the far eastern side of the state is kind of hurting for moisture. The drought monitor shown below clearly shows this. Drought Monitor November 16th Total Precipitation Last 30 Days We are still in a weak La Niña episode and will likely remain that way through the winter. Most computer models show us reverting back to a neutral ENSO st
High Plains
November 11th, Update: The Next 10 Days
It is no secret that rain and snow have been very hit or miss across the Western United States. One can see that from the map below: Total Precipitation Past 30 Days Northern California and the Pacific Northwest have received some great moisture, as have parts of New Mexico and Texas. However, most of the Western High Plains has remained parched. Because of this, drought continues to expand: Given what lies ahead during the next couple of weeks, the drought should continue to worsen across
Texas Update: November 2nd, 2016
After a very dry October, a slow moving storms is likely going to impact much of Texas in the coming days. At this time, it certainly looks like the western part of the state will reap the biggest rewards. Here is how the GFS Model sees the storm tracking, when it departs the Desert Southwest: Thursday Evening Upper Level Pattern: Friday Evening Upper Level Pattern: Saturday Evening Upper Level Pattern: Sunday Evening Upper Level Pattern: While the main storm passes to the north of Texa
Texas Update, October 28, 2016
During the course of the past week, the state has really suffered in the moisture department, especially those in west/central Texas, with a bit better moisture across eastern portions of the state: Here is this week's latest drought report showing another increase in the drought coverage of the state, up to 35% of Texas now is in a drought. You can see that the current drought monitor has increased the percentage of us under moderate and severe drought. Those areas primarily remain to the
Texas Update, October, 2016
The last two years have been amazing years of moisture for the state of Texas. Minus a nasty flash drought during the summer of 2015, and there have been no complaints when it comes to moisture. At times, it has been the opposite... So, let's break down what we thing will happen in the next few months. As of right now, we have a developing/weak La Niña that hasn't fully coupled with the atmosphere. In fact, it may not couple with the atmosphere. Why is that oceanic/atmospheric coupling importan
The Record-Setting Rains that Erased the Drought in Texas
May 2015 was a blockbuster month for Texas rainfall after years of drought with very little intermediate relief. Texas began the month of May with 41% of the state classified as experiencing drought conditions according to the U.S. Drought Monitor . By June 2nd (the first available report after the end of May) just 9.18% of the state remained in this category, with only 0.68% considered Moderate Drought or worse. If we take a look at CoCoRaHS data [http://www.c
Texas Drought Continues to Improve as State Faces Flooding Rains
The latest Drought Monitor was release today, and not surprisingly, drought improvements continue across the south-central United States. While there's still work to do, the state has seen huge improvements over the last 12 months, and more help is on the way. Last May, 91.18% of Texas as Abnormally Dry or worse according to the U.S. Drought Monitor . One year later that number has dropped to 35.58%, down from 40.32% a week ago. In the Extreme and Exceptional