Weather5280

We haven't had many cool days and we've obviously have lacked rain and snow this
early season as well. That will change for many of us by late in the weekend and
early next week.

This system will be a trough scooting through Sunday and Monday which will drag
a cold front strong enough to drop temperatures some 20 to 30 degrees from where
they are this week.

Here's the GENS 500 pattern at midnight Monday. 

And, below at the surface at the same time temperatures will be cooling off.

Let's flip over to the Euro Ensemble to see how much precipitation is possible
through Monday. Not much across the Eastern Plains with Northeast Colorado
seeing the best "potential" out east, and perhaps some more meaningful moisture
for the northern and central mountains: 

And, snowfall.

The interesting thing that has some social posts trending is that the Euro
operational run includes more snowfall than that: 

For deterministic output to not match well with its ensemble is concerning for
probability. Speaking of which, the probabilities of snowfall more than one inch
are shown below. This matches pretty well with its mean snowfall output above. 

That's quite a disparity between the Euro and its ensemble which more closely
matches the GFS and GENS.

Turning to temperatures.

The state will cool down, and many of us will catch at least a bit of rain with
some snow for the higher elevations.

Specifically for Denver and the metro area the GENS isn't too keen on moisture
chances for the city just yet as many members of the ensemble stay dry.

High temperatures stand a chance of cooling into the 50s and 60s next week (red
line on top). The bottom chart in the graphic below shows the 30 ensemble
members up the y-axis and their 6 hour precipitation forecasts. You'll note some
greens showing up late this weekend/early next week, but plenty of members
remaining quite dry: 

A similar look for Colorado Springs.

Bottom line is that we have something to track through the week. Data is not
convinced on low-elevation moisture totals adding up to all that much at this
point. 

The cooler temperatures with on-and-off rain/snow chances may linger several
days, too, allowing for a fall-like change after near/record heat.

Fall-like weather approaches