image: The State of the Atmosphere: Monday, June 1, 2020State of the Atmosphere

The State of the Atmosphere: Monday, June 1, 2020

100 degree heat returns to Colorado this week Hot weather, potentially record-setting, arrives across Colorado the first week of June. The heat is not only for Colorado but for much of the region. This won't be the first 100s of the year. The last weekend of May brought 100-degree heat to Lamar, CO. As we look across the region for the next week we see all of the following stations featuring double digit above average temperatures each day at this early June heat takes hold: And, of those th
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Weekend outlook, plus some heat for early next week
The overall trend of warmer than average days with scattered storminess is to continue with a couple of outliers during the next week. This weekend will be warmer than average (average is mostly middle 70s) but we will see an uptick in the number of thunderstorms and therefore rainfall for later Saturday into Sunday. The hourly planner for Denver shows storm chances in the 30 and 40% range this weekend: With those storms, we'll see areas of decent precipitation across the state to end the mo
Insider Pro Update
Drought update & the outlook: Friday, May 29th, 2020
The latest drought monitor continues to show the ongoing issues for the Four Corners region, namely Colorado, and the continued Extreme Drought for the Western US. For Colorado, the good news is that Memorial Day/Weekend rainfall kept the Extreme Drought coverage area from expanding...for now. Let's check the recent conditions via The National Drought Mitigation Center, University of Nebraska-Lincoln: Summary "During the past week, widespread rain and thunderstorms fell across parts of the G
image: A wonderful soaking rain for much of East-Central ColoradoRainfall Totals
A wonderful soaking rain for much of East-Central Colorado
Sunday's system delivered some much needed moisture to many of us across the region, but left crucial regions of the state high and dry. Denver officially picked up 0.94" of rain on Sunday, bringing the month-to-date total to 1.56", just 0.05" shy of average for the month. At nearly 1", the airport was fairly representative to what most locations saw across the greater metro area and immediate surrounding areas. Some folks reported a bit more than an inch, others a bit less, but a good soaking
Storm Update
Saturday PM update: Latest on late weekend rain and snow
Not much change to the outlook today than what we've been discussing for several days now. A chilly and wet end to the weekend looks likely along much of the urban corridor and the northern Front Range mountains. You'll recall in our update last week , the Palmer Divide region has been some of the driest in the state compared to average thus for this month. The good news about th
Denver Forecast
Wet and, for some, a white late weekend still on track
Just wanted to update you all on the progress of our holiday weekend storm system. The following images show how much liquid and how much snow is expected from the different models. EURO Model GFS Model Canadian Model Obviously, the models have their own ideas on the finer details. However, they all agree on a chilly and wet storm system moving through most of the state from Sunday into Monday. Considering the precipitation deficit we are facing across the state, this is all obviously go
Colorado Weather
Colder with rain and snow for Memorial Day Weekend
There's a system that will move through Sunday and Monday which will bring the state rain, snow, and a few days of chillier weather. We talked about this in last week's SOTA as a system to keep an eye on, and, while its impacts have been hit and miss in the modeling over the last days, consensus is growing that we'll have some wet weather to contend with over the holiday weekend. While perhaps not
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First Severe Thunderstorm Watch of the year for eastern Colorado
We've had plenty of strong winds across the greater metro area so far today, and now we watch for some strong to severe thunderstorms to develop over the plains as we head into late afternoon/evening. A surface trough is draped from Eastern Wyoming to Eastern Colorado which offers some directional sheer, strong surface winds obviously, and there's just enough moisture along that trough to support some large hail and damaging wind with any storm that develops. The SPC issued a severe thunderst
Record Heat
Denver's first 90 degree day came with record heat across Colorado
Tuesday set a number of records across the state for heat, including Denver. Denver not only hit 90 degrees for the first time this year, but also set a record high set of 92°F. The previous record was 90°F set back in 2009. Denver was not the only site to set a record Tuesday. Across Colorado, more than a dozen stations report record highs as of Tuesday afternoon (some stations will not report their record until Wednesday). Of those, new records for Colorado Springs and the Air Force Academ
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It's been a dry month for most of Colorado, with little relief in sight
May is one of the wettest climatologically for Colorado, yet thus far this May has been mostly dry and there's little change to that outlook as we end the month. As you can see below, the month so far has been quite dry everywhere except where we saw the heavier rainfall to end last week across the far Northeast Plains, and portions of the north-central mountains. Here is May's precipitation departure from average: Denver has received 1.26 inches through the 18th, which is 0.64 inches drier t
State of the Atmosphere
The State of the Atmosphere: Sunday, May 17th, 2020
In the end, some good precipitation totals for many locations across Northeast and East-Central Colorado. Of course that wasn't the case for everyone, but for those areas (especially east of the urban corridor) that managed rain, a welcome couple of days to be sure. Denver saw its best storms Friday evening, aligning with our highest probabilities as well. The main storms that moved through the metro area produced about a half inch to 3/4" of rain –– pretty well modeled, actually. Of course, n
PM Update
Wednesday PM update: scattered showers and storms to end the week
As we discussed in the State of the Atmosphere on Sunday, Thursday and Friday will feature a better chance for showers and storms across Eastern Colorado after a largely dry and beautifully mild midweek across the region. The heavier rainfall will be hit and miss, meaning many of us won't necessarily pick up appreciable rainfall between Thursday and Saturday. That said, the chance for rain creeps int
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La Niña development update
A couple months ago, we were telling you that there was potential for a La Niña episode, before the year was done . While we were pretty sure about some of the signals, ENSO forecasting this time of year is always tough. Models struggle in the spring, and this is affectionately called the "spring predictability barrier". We've seen ENSO events show up in the modeling only to disappear as we enter into summer. Howe
State of the Atmosphere
The State of the Atmosphere: Sunday, May 10, 2020
After a weekend on the chilly side, including even some spotty frost issues this morning, the coming week looks to feature more warmer days than cool once we get beyond Monday. The average high for this time of year in Denver has climbed to 71°F, and the average low now comfortably in the mid-40s at 44°F. You'll see in the image below most forecast temperatures are progged to run above average through Thursday, with the exception of tonight and Monday. Lows overnight tonight shouldn't dip quit
Insider Pro Update
Drought update & the outlook: Saturday, May 9th, 2020
The latest drought monitor continues to show the ongoing issues for the Four Corners region and the continued Extreme Drought in parts of Colorado, California, Oregon, and Texas. Let's check the recent conditions via The National Drought Mitigation Center, University of Nebraska-Lincoln: Summary "A strong cold front progressed southeast across the Great Plains, Mississippi Valley, and Southeast on April 28 and 29. This cold front was a focus for a severe weather outbreak from Oklahoma and e
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Elevated fire danger followed by a drier than average outlook
We are just getting started seeing those elevated and critical fire outlooks cover Colorado.
Climate
Drought expands across southern Colorado
For many of us in the state, this winter has been quite snowy. For a lot of mountain areas, it’s been a good snowpack year. So it might be surprising to know that some areas of our state are in increasingly severe drought. As of April 28, 32% of Colorado is experiencing severe drought (D2) conditions. How did we get here? One year ago in May, the U.S. Drought Monitor depicted a blank map for Colorado .
General Update
A new look!
Good morning Weather5280 readers! We are excited to unveil our new site today, a long overdue refresh to the site, and behind the scenes a complete rewrite of everything from our APIs that serve some of our weather feeds, to how we handle authentication and user management for Insiders and Insider Pros , to how we manage publishing content with Ghost publishing content manager. It is our hope that these changes will smooth out some iss
Insider Pro Update
Long range update: May, June, July 2020
Before can look ahead, we have to look at where we've been. Precipitation-wise, it has definitely been about the "haves" and "have nots". Here is a look at the total precipitation anomaly in inches, during the last 90 days. California has been struggling mightily, until recently. At the same time, areas from Central Texas to Western Pennsylvania have been very wet... For Colorado, the southern part of the state has been drier than average. In fact, severe drought classification now grips many
State of the Atmosphere
The State of the Atmosphere: Sunday, April 26th, 2020
After the record cold and plentiful snow we saw to start the month across much of the urban corridor and Front Range, the last days of April will be summer-like across the state as very warm weather will take over for much of this week. The official month-to-date snowfall total for Denver is just 3.7", below the long term average of 8.9" for April. Still, this is hardly representative of what we've seen in other Front Range cities this month (and really much of Denver proper itself), and did ma