image: Video Update: The latest with La Niña and the outlook for winterLa Niña

Video Update: The latest with La Niña and the outlook for winter

La Niña continues and appears very set on being with us for a third winter in a row, which is rare as it has only happened twice before. This has implications across the American West for water issues along the Colorado River (Lake Mead will continue to make headlines) due to La Niña's propensity for drought in the Southwest.
Denver Forecast
Colorado Weather: Flooding rains in the southwest to sharply cooler temperatures in the Denver area
The combination of late-season monsoonal moisture and a cold front dropping southward into the state will increase rainfall statewide and will bring the Denver metro area a large drop in temperatures. In terms of overall impact from the cold front, just a simple visual of high temperatures for the next few days can show you that clearly. That front sags down to the southern tier of the U.S. by Thursday. In the meantime there are a number of record high temperatures to be set today and tomorrow
State of the Atmosphere
State of the Atmosphere: Monday, September 19th, 2022
Relative calm from the weekend will continue for two more days for Denver and Colorado before quite a temperature drop and increased rain chances by Wednesday and Thursday. What's the week's setup? A low-pressure area near the California coast will send moisture into parts of the West, producing rain with the possibility of heavy rain over the region through Thursday. Monday night that system is near California: By Thursday night, the center is over the Northern Plains: As this system moves
image: Colorado forecast: How much snow analog years suggest Denver will see during the upcoming winter seasonWinter Forecast
Colorado forecast: How much snow analog years suggest Denver will see during the upcoming winter season
These kind of outlooks are always popular among social media channels when hype-driven terms and baseless projections scream for epic snowfall. There is a scientific basis that can and should be applied for a general understanding of where seasons are headed in terms of temperatures and precipitation. I explain more about the thinking and method in the video below, but the bottom line is that in longer ranges an almanac/climatology becomes one of the stronger forecast methods. Take a 14-day f
State of the Atmosphere
State of the Atmosphere: Sunday, September 11th, 2022
What a cool down we felt the past couple of days! Denver hit 51° Saturday, the coolest day since May 21st. And, Sunday morning was a chilly one with some first-freeze locations. > This morning was the coldest so far of the early fall (can we say that? 🍂). We've seen 11 degrees at the Spicer #CoAgMet station in North Park, 18 at our coop site in Walden, and there were mid 30s in northeastern Colorado. The first freeze for many m
Denver Forecast
Relief from the heat has arrived, weekend outlook includes a chance of rain
It's been long awaited and much anticipated, but the record-setting heat that has ruled our week is now behind us. A cold front overnight will keep us in the 60s today and perhaps cooler yet on Saturday, with some locales not even making out of the 50s on Saturday (hello Fort Collins!). What a change. The 24 hour temperature change map this morning shows the coldest anomalies still north of our area, but across Northeast Colorado we are running much cooler than this same time yesterday alrea
Denver Forecast
Denver Weather: Big cooldown headed to the Front Range by the weekend
While we set daily records for the heat, there is relief on the way and it looks relatively significant. High temperatures by the weekend may struggle to reach the 60s! Before we get there, though, we still have more heat on the way, and more records to set. From Tuesday: > Record breaking highs for Tuesday. Thanks to our cooperative observers for the great info they provide for us! #cowx pic.twitter.com/PQvmk4F4PZ [https://t.co
Extreme Heat
Extreme heat grips the west, records to fall in Denver
The heat from Labor Day weekend continues and will last for much of the workweek ahead, with Denver's existing record highs to fall the next few days. We discussed the overall setup in this week's SOTA: The State of the Atmosphere: Monday, September 5th, 2022Good morning and welcome to the first full week of September. September marks the start of meteorological fall, or as we’ve come to know it in recent years around here the height of our summer heat! September 2022 has kicked off in the sa
State of the Atmosphere
The State of the Atmosphere: Monday, September 5th, 2022
Good morning and welcome to the first full week of September. September marks the start of meteorological fall, or as we've come to know it in recent years around here the height of our summer heat! September 2022 has kicked off in the same tradition: exceptionally hot. This week we will be under the influence of a remarkably strong ridge across the West, which will lead to record-setting heat for much of the Western CONUS. Two meter temperature anomalies over the next 5 days shows the drama
State of the Atmosphere
State of the Atmosphere: Monday, August 29th, 2022
We start fall Thursday, and a relatively quiet and warm start to the meteorological season it will be. Although we did record rainfall this past week, the totals were lower than earlier periods in August and certainly of July. The combination of monsoonal moisture, a former tropical disturbance, and a stalled frontal/low pressure system accounted for the abundance of water from Texas to Alabama. Like much of the summer, the central mountains of Colorado had water, but the plains and northw
Weather5280 Insider
La Niña update and early fall/winter outlook
La Niña is still alive and well. The sea surface temperature anomaly animation for the past 90 days not only shows La Niña being maintained, but it is actually getting a bit stronger. While the North Pacific has warmed from late this spring, the central/equatorial Pacific has remained quite cool. The animation below shows what is happening beneath the surface across the equatorial Pacific: Simply put, the graphic shows ocean depth down to 450 meters across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Those
State of the Atmosphere
State of the Atmosphere: Monday, August 22nd, 2022
The weather for this week will be relatively calm as compared to last week's moisture and what is currently happening across the Southern U.S. For Colorado, the state picked up valuable moisture last week - as we discussed in a previous post related to the latest drought monitor. Recent moisture puts dent in drought for Colorado, but drought persists for most of stateAs many of the readers of this site have pointed out this summer, the recent rainfall hasn’t impacted everyone equally. Still, i
Drought
Recent moisture puts dent in drought for Colorado, but drought persists for most of state
As many of the readers of this site have pointed out this summer, the recent rainfall hasn't impacted everyone equally. Still, it's mostly positive news when it comes to this summer's monsoon, with much of Arizona, New Mexico, and increasingly Colorado seeing above average precipitation this summer. Over the last 60 days we see the areas that have seen above average precipitation across much of the Four Corners region, while the central and southern plains have remained drier than average: N
State of the Atmosphere
State of the Atmosphere: Sunday, August 14th, 2022
Looking ahead we have a 'cooler' week on tap with continued scattered thunderstorm chances, particularly early in the period. So far, this August has only had one day below 90° for a high temperature. Three record highs were reached so far this month, too. Denver breaks more heat records, cooler temperatures next weekThursday Denver set a new record high for the date, hitting 98° which beat the previous record of 97°. > Denver airport has reached 98F, which sets a new daily record high. #COw
Record Heat
Denver breaks more heat records, cooler temperatures next week
Thursday Denver set a new record high for the date, hitting 98° which beat the previous record of 97°. > Denver airport has reached 98F, which sets a new daily record high. #COwx pic.twitter.com/ybi7rVsJS8 — NWS Boulder (@NWSBoulder) August 11, 2022 This makes 11 new daily record highs for the year so far. The summer to date
State of the Atmosphere
State of the Atmosphere: Tuesday, August 9th, 2022
Throughout the week, warmer than normal and drier than normal conditions will return to most of us as the pattern across the country is a hot one for the Plains. In Denver, a 'drier' week is on tap. This is not to say we won't have storms around but that the number of storms will decrease. This is "okay" for those in Denver that were near the recent flooding. > Avoid driving in flooded roadways. Turn Around Don't Drown! #COwx h
Denver Forecast
Storm chances increase, temperatures cool for weekend plans
A lot is happening across the state this weekend from county fairs to concerts to one of the last pool weekends before schools start classes again. Douglas County Fair and Rodeo WeatherWeather forecasts and alerts for Douglas County Fair and RodeoWeather5280 The Heat is on: Today will be the warmest of the next three as storm chances increase daily as we head into the weekend. In fact, today may be so hot DIA could tie
Record Heat
Denver had 2nd hottest July on record
The Denver area recorded its 2nd hottest July in 2022. > Another way to contextualize last month's temperature data for Denver. Red indicates daily mean temperature was above normal, blue indicates below. Data looks very similar across the forecast area (i.e. not unique to Denver). #COwx https://t.co/iVzEq0QCyq pic.twitter.com/kSIQsRy5x9 — NWS Boulder (@NWSBoulder) August 3, 2022 [https://twitter.com/NWS
State of the Atmosphere
The State of the Atmosphere: Monday, August 1st, 2022
August! Hard to believe. What's maybe not so hard to believe is that the average temperature for July, 2022 ended 2.9°F hotter than average in Denver, with a mean temperature of 78.0°F for the month: You'll note in the image above that Denver officially only logged 0.99" of precipitation in July, which is -1.15" below the longterm average for the month. Well, for once the airport is actually in the minority here, as most stations across the eastern half of the state saw average to above ave
Denver Forecast
Heavy thunderstorms hit the Front Range, and more on the way for Colorado
Wednesday saw the power of some late-night thunderstorms around the metro areas. > Here it was south and west of you near Masonville/West Loveland. pic.twitter.com/VpXOQRhi9z — Kevin McSweeney (@kmcsween) July 28, 2022 > Impressive hail of approximately tennis ball sized lingering over 45 mins after the storm east of Fort Collins! Personally some of the largest I have seen in Colorado, only