image: The State of the Atmosphere: Sunday, May 15th, 2022State of the Atmosphere

The State of the Atmosphere: Sunday, May 15th, 2022

Perhaps some good news in the forecast for the upcoming week, but this should be met with a healthy dose of pessimism until we see actual water falling from the sky. Why? Because the pattern is a dry one, and despite what models have shown from time to time, the favored outcome will continue to hedge dry until we can fundamentally shift the pattern around here. Take the trusty European ensemble mean forecast for precipitation anomalies through next Sunday evening. It shows a blip of above av
Oh, so much wind! A historical perspective for Denver and the U.S.
Yes, it has been windy. And, it is safe to say it has been windier than normal around Denver and the Front Range in the past couple of months. It's important to keep things in perspective, so let's look at this from a top down approach, if you will. Wind events are common along the leeside of the Rocky Mountains, but what makes this recent pattern unusual is the scope of the winds across the U.S. as well as the frequency of strong wind events here in the city. To begin, let's take a look at A
State of the Atmosphere
State of the Atmosphere: Monday, May 9th, 2022
We are certainly warming and greening up nicely, but that means we will need better chances of precipitation to keep things progressing. Overall, the week ahead has low-end rain chances and warmer than average temperatures in the forecast for Colorado. The atmosphere for the week will have some troughing (unsettled weather) across the western U.S. early in the week, but notice how that area of blues on the map skirts the western part of the state before moving to our north and east. The path
image: Thankful for waterColorado Weather
Thankful for water
May is Denver's wettest month of the year, on average, and after a near-record dry April we are off to a great start, at least across Northeast Colorado. Here's a map showing May precipitation totals through this morning. More rain is falling on the Front Range and urban corridor this morning, so we will add to these totals in many places today and tonight. As we discussed heading into the month, the pattern has obviously favored northern Colorado, with drought-stricken southern Colorado rem
State of the Atmosphere
The State of the Atmosphere: Sunday, May 1st, 2022
Happy May! The last month of the snow season in Denver. Denver sees 56.9" of snow on average in a season. For the 2021-22 season, Denver has picked up 47.1" inches of snow so far with one month to go. That's after a very slow start to the snow season, a remarkably snowy start to the calendar year [
Denver Forecast
Red Flag Warning in effect Friday, but some rain and snow in the forecast for Northern Colorado
Our stretch of dry and windy weather continues today, with much of the region, including Denver, under a Red Flag Warning through this evening. This means gusty winds and low humidity values will combine to lead to high fire danger across much of the state once again today. The Front Range will be on the dry and windy side of what could be a significant severe weather day across the central high plains. While the northern mountains could see some rain and snow Friday, much of the heaviest rain
State of the Atmosphere
State of the Atmosphere: Sunday, April 24th, 2022
Looking at the week, the pattern is similar to the one we just went through with the main storm track remaining across the northern U.S. There are some differences from last week, though, in that this one will be a touch warmer and not as windy; any chances for meaningful moisture largely limited to the high country again. The overall temperature trend is shown for Denver, warm overall as the normal high temperatures are in the middle 60s during the last week of April. https://www.weather5280
Fire Weather
Extreme fire danger today, weekend moisture limited for Front Range and Denver
A dangerous combination of elements has come together today to give much of region extreme fire danger conditions should one be ignited. The map above is a product issued by the Storm Prediction Center as a general guidance tool. More specific information and alert issuance is done at the local level, and this is the Friday morning briefing provided by the NWS office in Boulder. There is a lot going on today, beyond and yet related
State of the Atmosphere
State of the Atmosphere: Monday, April 18th, 2022
We hope you enjoyed the holiday weekend, despite the wind. As we look through this week we have some discussion about the wind, some of the warmest temperatures of 2022 so far and then a look at the next chance for rain and snow. First, when it comes to the wind it isn't as bad Monday as it has been. With that said, however, don't expect that to last. It will be another week with periods of windy conditions across the state, particularly the mountains and the south. The following map shows wher
Easter Forecast
Easter and Passover weather with sunset and sunrise timing
Easter weekend is here, and the weather has calmed for Friday and Saturday but do expect the wind to ramp up again Sunday. Since wind has been the biggest topic around the area recently, let's start there. I'll have metro area specifics following a brief overview of the state. Although the wind is calmer than it was, it isn't totally gone. We can take a look at breezy/windy areas across Colorado for the weekend. Saturday's wind hits the mountains and the Palmer Divide. Sunday's wind picks up
Denver Forecast
Although unsettled, this week's weather a bit dry for Denver and Front Range
We discussed the unsettled nature of this week's weather in Sunday's SOTA, and while the weather remains somewhat active in some respects it has also been trending drier. The State of the Atmosphere: Sunday, April 10th, 2022After a relatively tranquil weekend we have an unsettled week of weather ahead for the Denver metro area, Front Range and Colorado. Some of us received a bit of rain and snow this morning, we talked about that in yesterday’s post [
State of the Atmosphere
The State of the Atmosphere: Sunday, April 10th, 2022
After a relatively tranquil weekend we have an unsettled week of weather ahead for the Denver metro area, Front Range and Colorado. Some of us received a bit of rain and snow this morning, we talked about that in yesterday's post , which was a bit of a kick starter for an active weather week. As part of this week's forecast, details we
Denver Forecast
Next week's storm system looks increasingly likely to stay north; some rain and snow in the forecast tonight for Colorado
Well, you don't see this too often, but it looks like the GFS may have out-performed the Euro with regard to next week's system we discussed with Insiders a few days back. We've seen a big shift north with the storm track from model guidance just a few days back, not just in the operational models but in the ensembles as well. Below is the 7-day mean precipitation forecast from the European initialized on Thursday morning, note the y
Weather5280 Insider
Storm for next week?
While we've been battling strong wind and high fire danger this week, we are also watching whether we'll see an actual storm next week. The images below are the various 500mb pattern forecasts, from the model ensemble means. The animations start Monday, and end Thursday: ECMWF Ensemble Mean GEFS Ensemble Mean CMC Ensemble Mean To be honest, it is quite shocking that all three models have a pretty similar solution. They take a strong upper level wave across the state, and eject it into the Mi
State of the Atmosphere
The State of the Atmosphere: Sunday, April 3rd, 2022
The latest system to bring rain and snow to portions of Colorado will work through the region through the remainder of the day and overnight. For most, it won't be all that impactful of an event, and in comparison to many of our recent systems, is but a tiny blip in the flow. Still, we've some rain and snow across the state today, and some of those snow showers will work their way across the foothills and Palmer Divide overnight. The latest HRRR shows where the greatest snowfall totals are e
PM Update
PM update: More mountain snow on the way, mild and drier across Eastern CO next few days
With our latest round of snow behind us, let's look ahead to the end of the week and weekend as mild air returns to the forecast for many of us, but another system (or two) await in the wings. First, snowfall totals over the last three days shows appreciable snow for much of the mountain regions with a good results for our forecast across our area. Some of the foothill locations west of Denver di
Snowfall Forecast
Rain and snow for much of Colorado today, latest forecast
Well, models have cooled once more since our update last night. This morning's data much better aligns with our idea for how the next 12 hours or so will pan out. Rain and snow has already developed across much of the state, with most areas seeing just light rainfall across Eastern Colorado this morning, but some heavier showers forming across the plains as of mid morning: Latest data shows precipitation totals in the 0.5" to 0.8" range for the Denver metro area, with totals approaching 1" f
PM Update
Monday PM update: A look at rain and snow chances on the way Tuesday
We continue to track changes to our weather on the way Tuesday, with much cooler weather on the way as well as a chance of rain and snow across much of the state. Temperatures won't be all that cold Tuesday, but a good bit cooler than we have been over the last couple of days. Highs will top out in the mid 50s Tuesday afternoon, then dipping into the upper 20s and low 30s Tuesday night into Wednesday. Precipitation chances will be on the increase Tuesday morning, with the best chance of rain
State of the Atmosphere
State of the Atmosphere: Sunday, March 27th, 2022
After unusually warm temperatures this weekend, the weather turns cooler and unsettled for the week. Although enjoyable weather in most respects, the weekend's warmth combined with dormant vegetation turns to a dangerous fire situation in Boulder County. Per the Boulder OEM , the evacuations as of late Saturday included more than 1,500 people, down from 19,000 earlier in the day. > The NCAR Fire Evacuation Area updated at 11:08 P.M. on March 26 includes 1,629 p
PM Update
Thursday PM update: Warm weekend ahead and a quick look at next week
A well-earned, very mild weekend is on tap for the region as quiet weather sets up under a big ridge to finish the week and take us through the weekend. Our latest storm went on to cause destructive severe storms in the south over the last two days, including an EF3 tornado which tore through New Orleans Tuesday evening. Ridging is now building into the west, with this week's system working it's way