image: Fourth of July ForecastPM Update

Fourth of July Forecast

While drought development and intensification has been at the forefront of the forecast lately, we may get a little break from that this weekend. From the looks of things, we'll have some thunderstorm making fuel around this weekend. This looks to be especially true on Saturday. Before we address the rain potential, here is a look at the expected high temperatures for both Saturday and Sunday. Saturday High Temperatures Sunday High Temperatures Rain chances start to ramp up on Saturday aftern
Insider Pro Update
Drought update & the outlook: Thursday, July 2nd, 2020
Exceptional drought conditions take over parts of Colorado and Kansas this week as the total drought area continues to increase. The favored precipitation areas in the next two weeks, and for the month, will be the northern high plains. I discussed the July outlook in depth in a previous post linked here . Unlike in the last drought update, the evaporative s
Weather5280 Insider
July outlook: temperature pattern to shift but precipitation likely to remain much the same
For much of the region June's weather pattern will remain for July, however, a wetter change is possible for the Northern High Plains. Let's start with June's data. Much of the Central United States has been warmer than average this month, as well as drier than average. This is to be expected, in previous posts we've discussed at length the overall ocean-atmosphere teleconnections that spell this out for us. Below we see temperature anomalies over the last 28 days, showing temperatures well
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Tuesday's heat may set new record in Denver
Drought expands across southern Colorado
image: Severe weather possible through the afternoon and evening across Eastern ColoradoSevere Weather
Severe weather possible through the afternoon and evening across Eastern Colorado
The severe weather outlook changed slightly since our post Thursday to cover more of the metro areas. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect through 9pm for all of Eastern Colorado. From Friday afternoon through the evening, strong to damaging thunderstorms will be possible east of the mountains, over the metro areas and on the plains. Here is the latest outlook from the SPC, showing a Sligh
PM Update
A stormy outlook for Eastern Colorado to end the week
We've seen quite a few popup showers this afternoon across Northeast Colorado, but most have featured more wind than rain. Most areas that have seen these storms are showing totals in the 0.1 to 0.3" range, with a couple of heavier showers delivering a bit more than that west of Loveland and across the Cheyenne Ridge. Tomorrow storm coverage will be a bit more widespread, and the chance of some of those storms being severe will be elevated from what we've seen most afternoons of late. The SP
Insider Pro Update
Drought update & the outlook: Thursday, June 25th, 2020
Extreme drought remained in the past week with unusually warm temperatures and lots of wind. That heat and wind of the past several weeks produced a rapid expansion of the drought in many areas, namely Colorado. The growth was so rapid, the term flash drought has been used. Here is a statement issued Thursday by the Boulder Office of the National Weather Service. "DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 330 PM MDT THU JUN 25 2020  ...DROUGHT EXPANDS INTO THE NORTHEA
Have you heard the term "flash drought?" What exactly does that mean?
One of the more recent meteorological buzz-terms making the rounds is "flash drought." This is a relatively new term, even for meteorologists and climatologists. Drought is one of the most unique natural hazards we deal with, partially due to its slow development and evolution. And, unlike other hazards, droughts are "measured" by the cumulative lack of something as opposed to actual measurements of variables. The official definition of drought has never been short or simple, and it can have v
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Looking forward to the Fourth
Warmer than average conditions between now and the Fourth of July with hit and miss rain chances between now and then. To look at the pattern in general, we do see a flip in the PNA toward a setup that will typically bring a trough over the Western US. Other indices are not supporting of much change with their near 0 outlook. Further, the MJO is not in much of a phase shift either. In Phases 1 and 2 the corresponding precipitation pattern favors the Northern US and plains. You can see th
State of the Atmosphere
The State of the Atmosphere: Monday, June 22, 2020
For many locations the rain of recent days was nothing short of disappointing. Some areas, however, did much better. Between Thursday and Friday we saw swath of 1"+ totals ending up north and northwest of Denver. The Palmer Divide picked up some better storms Friday, as well as portions of south central and east central Colorado. In between? Mostly dry. It was good to see parts of southern Colorado pick up some appreciable moisture, but we need more and better coverage to combat the expanding
Weekend Outlook
Another round of rain today, warmer for the weekend
Yesterday's precipitation ended up a bit north of where some models had it projected, but overall was pretty well captured in the data. For those that didn't see much rain, Thursday was still a nice break from the heat. Yesterday's temperatures topped out in the low 70s, more than 20 degrees cooler than the near-record heat of the day prior. Today the cooler than average weather continues, as well as another chance of rain. Rainfall totals for Denver added up to just a few hundredths across
Insider Pro Update
Drought update & the outlook: Thursday, June 18th, 2020
Extreme drought increases in the past week with unusually warm temperatures and lots of wind. The latest drought monitor continues to show the ongoing issues for the Four Corners region, namely Colorado, and the continued Extreme Drought for the Western US. Let's check the recent conditions via The National Drought Mitigation Center, University of Nebraska-Lincoln: Summary "Significant rainfall missed most areas of dryness and drought across the contiguous 48 states, with improvements limi
Colorado Weather
A chance of rain Thursday will help knock back record heat and smoky skies
As we outlined for Insiders on Monday, we indeed saw record high temperatures across the region on Tuesday. Denver broke its previous record of 95°F by one degree on Tuesday as our early summer hot streak continues. As we've mentioned a couple times this week, changes arrive tomorrow. But not before another hot afternoon across the region today.
Weather5280 Insider
Tuesday's heat may set new record in Denver
Denver has been near to record highs with a string of 90-degree days, and a potential record may be set Tuesday. The forecast calls for middle to upper 90s Tuesday. The city's existing record is 95 degrees from 2017. Currently we have Denver forecast to break the previous record by 1°F, and Colorado Springs set to come up one degree shy of tying its record for the date: Regardless of setting records, the temperatures across the area are obviously well warmer than average. From 10 to nearly 20
State of the Atmosphere
The State of the Atmosphere: Sunday, June 14th, 2020
Our concerns about a hot and dry summer have unfortunately been nothing short of reality through the first two weeks or so of June. To date, Denver is running 5.3°F above average for the month, and at 0.54" of precipitation is sporting a -0.4" precipitation deficit as well. As we outlined for our Pro clients this week, drought conditions continue to worsen across the region, with those areas of
Weather5280 Insider
Recent rainfall helps but deficit continues across Colorado
Northern Colorado has benefited most from recent rainfall, however, the drought remains as much of the state remains drier than average. Take a look at the recent precipitation totals and you'll see the heaviest accumulations over northern Colorado. Portions of Logan, Morgan, and Washington Counties received the most precipitation over the last three days with totals over one inch. Precipitation Analysis from NWS Grid: Weathermodels.comNow, take a look at the past 30 days. Notice the percenta
Insider Pro Update
Drought update & the outlook: Thursday, June 11th, 2020
The latest drought monitor continues to show the ongoing issues for the Four Corners region, namely Colorado, and the continued Extreme Drought for the Western US. For Colorado, the area of extreme drought increased by ~6 percent. Speaking of Colorado, this week's NRCS snowfall report was released with a notable quote: > Wow, "To express the degree of the dry conditions, 49 out of 115 Colorado SNOTEL sites received the lowest or second lowest precipitation amounts on record for the combined m
Storm Update
The wind has returned, a chilly night with rain and snow to follow
Just a quick update this evening to reiterate the chilly night ahead. Lots of folks have been asking about their sensitive vegetation, what the wind is expected to do, and who may see snow. First, the wind. A High Wind Warning remains in effect for all of Eastern Colorado. Winds from 30 to 45 mph will be expected through much of the night, with gusts to 60 mph. A look at latest reports from across the region show sustained winds of 30 mph already up and down the urban corridor this evening:
Denver Forecast
Showers, storms, and higher elevation snow on the way tonight in addition to more wind
A well-earned cool down is on the way tonight and Tuesday, but it won't come without issues. For one, we'll have another round of strong winds to work through later today and tonight. A High Wind Warning goes into effect for most of Eastern Colorado this evening, and remains in effect through early Tuesday. North winds from 30 to 40 mph will be possible, with gusts to 60 mph. Across Southern Colorado, another Red Flag Warning day today, with gusty winds and low relative humidity making the fir
Saturday's wind event was a derecho: a widespread, long-lived wind storm which brought gusts to 110 mph to Colorado
Yesterday's incredible wind storm which formed over the Great Basin Saturday morning then raced across the Colorado and into the High Plains Saturday afternoon was an impressive event for this region, and one that will be classified as a derecho in the history books. What's a derecho? From the Storm Prediction Center: > A derecho (pronounced similar to "deh-REY-cho" in English, is a widespread, long-lived wind storm associated with a band of rapidly moving showers or thunderstorms variously k
Weather5280 Insider
A look at the latest seasonal model data and some thoughts on this year's monsoon
The latest EURO Seasonal forecast came out today, and it really isn't a great deal different from what we've been advertising. You know we've been concerned about drought for awhile now, and with a budding La Niña , we remain pessimistic on many fronts when it comes to rain this summer, and moisture this fall. Here is the latest sea surface temperature anomaly forecast from the model. That is, where its forecasting above