image: Prepare for heavy rain as Front Range & Denver area enter into flash flood watchFlooding

Prepare for heavy rain as Front Range & Denver area enter into flash flood watch

Rainfall looks likely with the next surge of moisture to move through this weekend as part of the cooler and wetter pattern we've alerted you to earlier this week. Record highs forecast today, relief from the heat and rain on tap for the weekend across ColoradoThere’s going to be a transition within the atmosphere from late this week through early next week that will bring cooler temperatures and higher rain chances to most, if not all, of Colorado. This transition is part of the seasonal mons
Heat Wave
Record high set in Denver on Wednesday as Denver's 2021 100-degree day tally grows
Wednesday set a record high for the date on Wednesday once it hit 99°F, but went one further topping out at 100°F (or greater) for the 5th time this year. The previous record high for July 28th is an old one, in 1876 the city hit 98 degrees . Now the record is 100-degrees, set in 2021. For those keeping score, there are very few existing record highs that go back that far. Denver still has two record highs from 1874 on record (101 degrees on July
Denver Forecast
Record highs forecast today, relief from the heat and rain on tap for the weekend across Colorado
There's going to be a transition within the atmosphere from late this week through early next week that will bring cooler temperatures and higher rain chances to most, if not all, of Colorado. This transition is part of the seasonal monsoon pattern that is trying to establish itself across the American Southwest. In this case, the monsoonal pattern is breaking down and shifting west, during which some moisture from the Northern US will be moving from north to south across the state. Remember,
Insider Pro Update
Drought update & the outlook: Friday, June 25th, 2021
Climate
As western drought intensifies, so too does the heat
image: The State of the Atmosphere: Sunday, July 25th, 2021State of the Atmosphere
The State of the Atmosphere: Sunday, July 25th, 2021
Hard to believe it's the final SOTA for July, 2021. Time is flying even if the rain is not! Despite better moisture in place over recent days, storm coverage has been lacking across Northeast Colorado. The greatest coverage instead has been confined to the Palmer Divide and higher terrain of Colorado – especially over the southwestern portion of the state which needs it most! Precipitation totals over the last two days were impressive across much of Arizona with an active monsoonal pattern i
Weekend Outlook
Push of monsoonal moisture will increase flash flood risk to end week, begin weekend
The outlook from this week's SOTA held up pretty well, with the greatest rainfall coverage so far this week parked over the higher terrain of Colorado and the Palmer Divide. Yesterday featured some better storm coverage for Denver – missing many of us on the west side of the metro area, but some good 0.25 to 0.8" totals across portions of the city. A look at rainfall totals from the last three days, shows some areas of good precipitation, especially along the Front Range and Palmer Divide, b
Climate
Analyzing Colorado's precipitation trends over the last 125 years
Precipitation totals over the past 125 years haven't changed much for Colorado on the whole, however, county-level data reveal notable trends between months and seasons. Similar analyses have been done on a national level, and those studies also point to precipitation variability and shifts across the Lower 48. These studies have different processes and utilize different datasets, but the outcomes are rather similar amongst various methodologies. In my methodology, I take a simplistic approac
State of the Atmosphere
The State of the Atmosphere: Monday, July 19th, 2021
We've reached the point in the summer when we get back to back weeks where the SOTA ends up on a Monday. It's the time of year when the skies are clear of clouds (full of smoke), the air is dry, and all the temperatures are above average. Honey, could we ask for more? Of course it hasn't been all bad news on the precipitation front, even if the last week was quite dry along the urban corridor. Regionally we've seen an uptick in monsoon activity, which has led to some good areas of above averag
Insider Pro Update
Drought update & the outlook: Friday, July 16th, 2021
Drought has increased and that trend is likely to continue. Although there has been some tropical moisture for the Southwestern United States and wet weather for the southern states, the northern tier is hurting. During the past month, drought has grown in the yellow shaded regions, decreased in the green regions, dark gray is unchanged: The moisture that the Lower 48 has received in the past month is shown here as a percentage of average. For just the past two weeks: The past two weeks hav
Denver Forecast
Cooler with a better chance of storms today, heat on track to return for the weekend
As we discussed in this week's SOTA , today is likely to feature the best chance of storms across the area for the week, with a cold front dropping temperatures a good 10°F (or more) from where most of us have been to start the week. For the urban corridor this works out to about a 60% chance of storms by early to mid afternoon, some of which could produce heavy rain and some hail. Storms are forecast
State of the Atmosphere
The State of the Atmosphere, Monday, July 12th, 2021
Temperatures have been quite warm across the region in recent days as the pattern has trended drier. A look at the last seven days shows areas west of the Continental Divide remain bone dry, with only spotty positive precipitation anomalies across Eastern Colorado. Most of us across Northeast Colorado saw below average precipitation over the last week. Notable in the map above is at least some signs of live from the annual North American Monsoon. Portions of New Mexico did manage some apprecia
Extreme Heat
Scorching hot Thursday as Denver metro area nears 100 degrees
*edit as of 2 pm, Denver did indeed hit 100-degrees. Hot weather has been building this week and will peak today with temperatures near 100°F for the Front Range and Denver area. Much of the western US is under a heat-related hazard Thursday, including Denver, ranging from Heat Advisories, Red Flag Warnings, to poor air quality: Right on our homepage you'll notice th
Weather5280 Insider
Extended outlook features a boost of monsoonal moisture for the south and a drier outlook north
No real surprises in June as the pattern, generally speaking, held true to prior months. Wet areas generally remained wet, and dry areas dry. This is especially true for the west coast (which remained quite dry) and places along the immediate Front Range, which remained wetter than average. With that, we see drought conditions continue to worsen across much of the west, but areas across Eastern Colorado and Western Kansas remain drought-free. The most recent Drought Monitor was published on
State of the Atmosphere
The State of the Atmosphere: Sunday, July 4th, 2021
Happy 4th of July, everyone! 🎆 It's been quite a first half of the year for the state, with the western half continuing to be plagued by dry weather and worsening drought, and a rather remarkable stretch of wet weather for many locations across the eastern half of the state – though not all. Nationally, you can see that Northeast Colorado has experienced some of the greatest positive precipitation anomalies year to date, with many areas to our south and east seeing the same. West of the Cont
Fourth of July Forecast
Warming forecast for the Fourth of July
July Fourth is upon us and we will feel temperatures warm from Friday through the fourth, meanwhile rain chances will hold relatively steady. The 4th is 'normally' 88 degrees, but was as hot as 102 in 1874 and as cold as 59 in 1972. (Those statistics are the daily high temperatures). This year isn't likely to be too far off par. Temperature Outlook Let's step through temperatures for Saturday, Sunday and Monday across Colorado. This is a warm forecast but not extreme. For a few select loc
Flash Flood Watch
Flash flooding possible with Thursday's round of thunderstorms
A Flash Flood Watch issued early Thursday is an indication of the rainfall intensity that is possible later Thursday. First, the details on the watch: > The National Weather Service in Denver has issued a * Flash Flood Watch for Portions of central, north central, and   northeast Colorado, including the following areas, in central   Colorado, Central and Southeast Park County and Jefferson and West   Douglas Counties Above 6000 Feet/Gilpin/Clear Creek/Northeast Park   Counties Below 9000 Feet
State of the Atmosphere
The State of the Atmosphere: Monday, June 28th, 2021
After a hot and dry start to the month, the recent rainfall will put many locations across eastern Colorado above average for precipitation in June. Denver International Airport, where official records are kept, has managed just 0.75" of precipitation through the 27th, which is an inch below average for the month. Still, many other locations have faired much better in recent days. Centennial, for example, has logged 2.75" of precipitation for the month, which is 0.95" above average to date.
Rainfall Forecast
Sunday brings another round of heavy rainfall to some in the Denver area
Your plans today are, again, subject to a round of storms, just as they were the past two days. Here's an animation to show the general idea for the progression of storms forecast to develop across Colorado noon Sunday through midnight. Storms will develop and move from the north to the south/southeast and largely focusing on 2/3rds of the state, leaving the Western Slope the driest. For a few hourly timelines, let's look from north to south from Fort Collins to Denver to Castle Rock to Color
Denver Forecast
Saturday's storm chances and timeline
Your plans Saturday are subject to another round of storms, just as they were on Friday along the Front Range and eastern plains. Here's an animation to show the general idea for the progression of storms forecast to develop across Colorado noon Saturday through 3 am Sunday. For a few hourly timelines, let's look from north to south from Fort Collins to Denver to Castle Rock to Colorado Springs. Fort CollinsDenverCastle RockColorado SpringsIn all cases above, we have a couple days worth of h
Insider Pro Update
Drought update & the outlook: Friday, June 25th, 2021
As the Central and Eastern US have had some notable areas of rainfall, much of the west has not, instead heat shattered existing records across the west. The table above shows a statistical count of all record setting temperatures through this post. Looking just at locations where all-time record heat was set since June 14th is shown here. Again, those displayed are new all-time hottest temperatures. June, to date, has been cooler than average across the southeastern U.S., warmer elsewhere:
Rainfall Forecast
Cooler temperatures and a better chance of rain across much of Colorado as we end the week
The chance for rainfall increases into Friday and lingers into the weekend, with widespread thunderstorms expected along the Front Range and Northeast Colorado. So far, June has been quite a dry month, with only isolated pockets of above average precipitation through the 22nd across Colorado: The moisture received this week, mostly in that cooldown Sunday and Monday, was about the only notable widespread rainfall since May. Precipitation totals this week, through Wednesday: Another benefit