Brendan Heberton

An active pattern looks to try to continue next week, with another chance of
snow looking possible for portions of the I-25 corridor for the middle to latter
half of the week. The most likely timeframe for something to move through would
be from late Tuesday night through Thursday depending on which solution
verifies.

Now, this is a ways out, and let's be mindful of how most systems at a distance
have looked vs how they've materialized this winter. The high level of
uncertainty should be stressed, but enough of a signal that we wanted to touch
on the potential with Insiders. 

Greatest odds right now look to be for the southern I-25 corridor – namely north
Colorado Springs and points south. Still, data suggests the northern urban
corridor is in the running as well, with plenty of uncertainty around the
eventual track of the midweek system. Roughly speaking, the GFS shows a more
favorable setup for the northern urban corridor, the European a more southerly
one. 

The latest GEFS shows our weekend snow chance as well as a clustering of
precipitation showing up in the ensembles for the middle of next week for the
Denver metro area. 


Timing varies in the modeling. The GFS is quicker, moving things through next
Tuesday night and Wednesday. The Euro is slower and has a more southerly bias –
bringing the greatest impacts through Wednesday into Thursday, and seems to want
to focus the best energy over south-central Colorado. 

Here's a look at both the Euro (left) and GEFS (right) for next Wednesday night.
Both fairly progressive, but the Euro digging a bit more. The GFS operational
looks a bit more like the Euro, but is still quicker on arrival. Both models
indicate a pretty good FROPA with good lift in place to support snowfall along
the Front Range. 

Here's the latest sounding for next Tuesday night from the GFS. Probably the
more bullish of solutions at this time – but shows the front moving through and
good upslope flow in place. Could it bit? 

Given the 500mb maps it looks like there's more ways for this to fall apart than
materialize – but, an intriguing amount of agreement in guidance today that 
something moves through next week, so let's track it over the weekend and see
how things progress. 

So, without getting too carried away, here's a look at the morning gamblers. For
the weekend, look for about a decent chance Denver picks up a Trace to 2" of
snow, with slightly better odds for Castle Rock. 

The 3 - 7 day probabilities are showing some good signs of life, however, with
Boulder/Denver/Castle Rock/Colorado Springs all showing the potential for
several inches of snow next week if things hold. 

Get out and enjoy the days between the storms. 

Highs today and tomorrow should feel quite nice after the recent cold, though
Saturday's mild weather could be cut short depending on the timing of the front.
Monday and Tuesday next week look quite mild ahead of the next system due to
arrive with our next shot of cold and potentially snow.

Will active pattern to end February deliver more snow to Denver and the Front Range next week?