Brendan Heberton

A relatively active period of weather coming up over the next week or so, with a
couple of weaker systems to watch for late this week and weekend, followed by a
strong trough set to move through the Rockies by the early to middle part of
next week. 

Early Friday we see a trough move inland off the West Coast. It'll eject a piece
of energy out ahead of the main trough which is currently expected to stay far
enough north of Colorado not to cause major impacts on our weather, but some
mountain storms and clouds across the plains are possible. 

A cold front Friday night drops temperatures from around 80°F in Denver on
Friday to the low-to-mid 70s on Saturday. 

The main trough then moves over the state Saturday night and Sunday, with
varying implications depending on what model solution you look at. 

The European model's most recent runs appears to be trying to strengthen the low
as it moves across northern New Mexico/extreme southern Colorado Sunday which
would possibly lead to a swath of heavier rainfall across the Southeast Plains
to end the weekend. The GFS remains generally more progressive, but it too has
some stronger storms across the far southeast plains and panhandles Sunday PM. 

The European ensemble, pictured below, keeps the trough open as it progresses it
east, indicating continued uncertainty here. 

For Northeast Colorado, the weekend looks to remain mostly on the dry side. A
passing shower or two will be possible, along with some wind as these systems
traverse the region, but nothing all too organized as things look today. We'll
see if that changes. 

The next system to impact the state will come quickly on the heels of whatever
we see this weekend. You can see it lurking to the northwest in the image above.
A theme of La Niña winters for our region is wind, and next week's early season
trough that's set to move through may prove an early indicator of what's to come
this winter. 

By Monday night we see this system drop into the Great Basin and intensify: 

It'll quickly wrap up and eject northeast Tuesday into Wednesday, with most
models pulling the greatest rain and snow threat north of Colorado as it does. 

The exact track of this system will be what we'll need to watch closely over the
coming days. If it's pulled north, look for chilly temperatures and wind being
the primary impact across the northern urban corridor. If it drops a bit further
south – it could be we're looking at our first snowflakes of the season, even
for the metro area. 

The trend (nearly a week out, so don't read too much into this) has been to pull
it south a bit. Should this hold, well then we'll need to keep on this system
over the next six days ago. Should it trend back north (which may be
climatologically favored), the rain and snow threat will be greatly decreased. 

For what it's worth, here's the European ensemble snow forecast through next
week from yesterday's run: 

Compared to the overnight run: 

A bit more blue for Northeast Colorado in the more recent run! 

In either event, likely a decent early season snow on the way for portions of
Wyoming and Montana, and at least something to keep an eye on for Colorado.
Whether the storm ends up overhead or north we're also likely to see some wind 
along the Front Range with it as well, which would be especially true for the
foothills if the track ends up north. As it stands, Tuesday/Wednesday next week
look windy around here: 

After the early to middle part of next week, most models quiet the pattern down
once more, establishing ridging overhead and warmer temperatures once again as
we head into next weekend.

Two systems in the pipeline could deliver rain, snow, and plenty of wind to Colorado