Brian Bledsoe

While we've been battling strong wind and high fire danger this week, we are
also watching whether we'll see an actual storm next week. The images below are
the various 500mb pattern forecasts, from the model ensemble means. The
animations start Monday, and end Thursday:

ECMWF Ensemble Mean

GEFS Ensemble Mean

CMC Ensemble Mean

To be honest, it is quite shocking that all three models have a pretty similar
solution. They take a strong upper level wave across the state, and eject it
into the Midwest. While there are some subtle timing and strength differences,
they DO NOT take the core of the energy south of the state. That is certainly
where I would like to see it to give EVERYONE a good shot at some much needed
spring moisture. While we still have lots of time for this to change, the track
is going to have to drop quite a ways south to accomplish that feat. 

What does this mean? Well, while the exact details are still far from certain,
the best chance for some significant wind driven snow likely ends up in Wyoming,
Western Nebraska, and the Western Dakotas. Some parts of far north/northeast
Colorado may get in on the act, but the highest impact would be north without a
shift in the overall track. 

We see this idea reflected in model guidance precipitation anomaly forecasts as
well, with the next 10 days showing the best above average precipitation up
across the northern plains, vs areas south and southeast: 

Similarly, probabilities for 0.5" of precipitation through next Wednesday, with
Northeast Colorado in play, but the greatest probabilities across the Colorado
high country and points north: 

Farther south (south of I-70), it will likely be more about strong wind and fire
danger. All this being said, if you have travel interests in the region, and are
calving or have livestock well removed from adequate shelter, you should
definitely be paying attention to the forecast. There will be some changes as we
get closer, and we'll keep you updated.

Storm for next week?