Matt Makens

Let's get to the hazards for next week: below-average temperatures highlighted
here from the 22nd to the 23rd, downright cold for the time of year from Seattle
to Helena, Bismarck, Pierre, and Cheyenne.

Especially for the Northern High Plains, look for temperatures to be well below
zero in many cases, maybe even double-digits below zero.

Expand that view from the 24th to the 26th- we've taken that cold air and moved
it into the Midwest, where it's going to be very, very cold, and the New England
states will also get very cold.

Impactful precip is on the way - heavy precipitation off the West Coast from the
24th through March 2nd and from the 25th to the 28th from about Nashville up to
New York, Boston, Toronto, and Detroit.

As far as impactful snow on the way, from the 24th to March 2nd, the Cascades
into the Sierras will have heavy snowfall. In the Rockies between the 24th and
26th, there's potential for heavy snowfall. And, then the 25th to the 28th,
hefty snowfall from the plains stretching out of the Great Lakes into the
Mid-Atlantic and New England states. 

I wouldn't be surprised if we see some impactful snowfall and other sections of
South Dakota, not just the east side.

I want to take a break from the forecast and look at snowpack and drought
numbers. Snowpack is colorized here.

This is the snow depth on the ground as of February 16th; impressive in a lot of
cases, especially the Central and Northern Plains and the Southwest. And the
opposite, very little snowfall off to the East.

This snow doesn't necessarily translate to drought because we still have this
dry footprint across the country, especially in the central plains of Kansas and
Nebraska.

Comparing the two maps, why are so many drought areas covered in snow yet still
in a drought? Part of that, well, it's several things; you need to melt the snow
before it's any benefit for water. In a lot of cases, the ground is frozen. This
is true from Nebraska northward and across the Northwest. Frozen ground does not
absorb moisture, or at least not very efficiently, so you may have a lot of snow
on the ground. From a drought perspective, that snow still needs to be
contributed to the soils and still needs to be melted to contribute to surface
water.

That's why comparing snow depth snowpack on top of the drought monitor may be
confusing or misleading to you as to why there is still drought with that much
snow on the ground.

There is also the factor that much of the precipitation that fell since Tuesday,
February 14th was not yet recorded into the drought monitor. That recent
moisture, and that which falls between this post and Tuesday will come out in
next week's drought data release.

If you'd like to get into the weeds with us on the snowfall situation for next
week, we posted this for you.

5280 Pros: Weather hazards coming your way, plus an update on the snowpack and drought situation