Brian Bledsoe

The past 30 days have proved to be wetter than recent times in some areas, but
not for everyone. Folks in far Southeast Colorado, Southwest Kansas, southward
into the Texas Panhandle really benefited from a late April storm. While it was
by no means a drought buster, it was certainly a big help. 

You can see that in the map below, with greens indicating above average
precipitation over the last 30 days, and browns below average.

The Pacific Ocean has been warming up too. The equatorial Pacific is the
warmest, and is essentially reflective of the transition to El Niño.

All of that red off the west coast of South America, represents ocean
temperatures that are way above average. The colder than average water off the
west coast of North America has also been warming, after some very cold readings
in March and April. Both of these things are good news. The El Niño
probabilities are also reflective of the trend, and we don’t see that changing
anytime soon.

The storm that is set to impact parts of the region Wednesday through the
weekend, will also bring some rain to the region. This is especially true for
northern areas and southern areas. Locations in between will likely get shorted,
and that region will essentially encompass Southeast Colorado, Southwest Kansas,
and parts of the Panhandles. But overall, the next two weeks look like this:

EURO Precipitation Forecast Next Two Weeks

Again, much of that above average flavor is due to the northern and southern
storms that will influence the Plains through the weekend. What lies beyond the
next two weeks, well, here is the latest precipitation anomaly forecast for
June, from the NMME and the EURO Seasonal model.


NMME Model Precipitation Forecast June

EURO Seasonal Model Precipitation Forecast June

Both models do not show a stout dry signal for the region which is welcome news,
and the NMME model is decidedly wetter than the EURO.

So, while I don’t think June will be a terribly dry month, there is some trouble
that we may have to deal with beyond June. The EURO seasonal model has been very
steadfast in suggesting that the monsoon season will be a drier than average
one, for Arizona, New Mexico, and parts of Southern Colorado. This is typically
the case when an El Niño is established or getting established. Given how
strongly this one is coming on, and that the EURO model has been hinting at the
monsoon being weaker than average, it is certainly something we need to be
thinking about for July and August.

Monthly weather outlook: A look at the remainder of May and on into June