A rather quiet, and even hot-at-times week is in the forecast for most of Colorado as we hit pause on what has been a very active pattern for the eastern half of the state.

Precipitation totals as forecast by the European model show the only appreciable precipitation expected through Friday night is across the far eastern plains of Colorado, with just spotty (and generally light) shower activity along the Front Range. For Western Colorado, dry conditions persist.

That's not to say we won't see any active weather across the state this week. Today's severe weather threat does include some of those far-eastern counties, with a Marginal risk for storms over most of the central/eastern Plains of Colorado. Coverage will just be much more muted than we saw to end last week.

For the Denver area look for temperatures to climb into the low to mid 90s most afternoons this week, with perhaps a bit of a cool down coming by next weekend. The Euro shows highs will drop about 10-degrees by next Saturday, but if it's to be believed, that cool off will be short lived with more heat in the forecast by early next week.

The pattern at 500 is supportive of this idea. Ridging establishes itself for the better part of this week:

But we'll be a bit more under the influence of s trough (blues) next weekend, as the ridge retrogrades:

But by early next week the trough again tries to center over the Four Corners, which would help promote that heating once more:

If we look at the corresponding temperatures forecast by then ensemble model above for Denver, we see a pretty good stretch of hot weather ahead. The only blip in the 90s is this coming weekend, otherwise highs in the low to mid 90s over the next two weeks (potentially hotter at times?) looks like a good bet.

It could be worse, the ensemble forecast for Phoenix for the same period is just brutal!

And finally, a large scale look at precipitation patterns over the next two weeks:

No sign of the monsoon in that outlook! But no surprises there either:

2023 North American Monsoon forecast update

As we head deeper into July we thought it time to give an update on the progress of the monsoon. If you’ve been frequenting the site, you know that we not only expected the monsoon to be a late arrival, but also a diminished one. So far, there has not been any real monsoon signal. The graphic below …

Brian BledsoeJul 05, 2023Weather5280

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