Luke Victor

Had ourselves a big ol' windbag this weekend, huh!? It could have been a good
one (snow maker) if we had this system to our south rather than north - parts of
Wyoming had blizzard conditions just about the entire weekend. Regardless, I
think we're all happy to kick most of those winds to the curb this week. 

We'll be under the influence of a weak area of low pressure to our south the
next few days, leading to slightly below normal temps to start the work week,
gradually warming into next weekend. 

European modeled temperatures for the Denver area: 

A pretty stout ridge barrels in Friday, and you can see the difference it makes!
50s and 60s shoot up to near 80 quickly! It's that time of the year... the right
setup can do temperature work (in either direction).

This pattern means we don't have too much moisture to talk about... the silver
lining is it'll also be less windy. If you're thinking about getting the
sprinkler systems - at the very least prepped to get going, it's not a horrible
idea this week. Although, you will probably have another couple weeks till we're
really in the clear, but for the time being the pattern definitely doesn't look
like we have any big April storms looming.

Both precipitation anomaly charts and the MJO chart above indicate a fairly
anemic setup. The browns over Colorado are indicative of below average
precipitation being forecast by that model over the next 10 days. You can see
the remnants of the active March weather we had with the black line circling
this chart and forecasts in yellow starting to collapse to the center,
indicating a "weakening" setup for stormy activity. 

And a look at data for late April into May, the pattern does not really look
like it wants to become more favorable. Plenty of signal to ridging over the
western US, along with troughing over the east coast. While it took Denver
forever to reach 70 this spring
[https://twitter.com/BianchiWeather/status/1775650491705237844], we're probably
going to start feeling like summer quickly if this pattern comes to fruition in
the next 45 days. 

Precipitation data in years when we jump from El Nino to La Nina do not favor
much wet weather from April into June either. Oh, what a shift that is. 

Now, we're not ALL total doom & gloom at this point. CFS weekly charts have been
pretty bullish on May precipitation in eastern Colorado and over the plains, and
it could be we do get a bit of a window for more moisture before La Niña becomes
more of a headache for us down the road. This would clearly be a welcome pattern
should it setup for May: 

The latest European monthly for May looks less exciting, though... And while not
completely dry (near average precipitation for eastern Colorado for the month),
it's not exactly a wet signal for the state either. To our east, a bit better of
a look, and we'll take it – as these areas are likely to shift much drier as we
move beyond this spring. 

Here is June from the same model, showing plenty of below average precipitation
trying to force its way into the region. We could be very happy for the wet
start to the year if we can't manage a period of wetter weather come May. 

The bottom line here is we are certainly seeing spring be spring, but we are
also seeing at longer periods the transition from El Niño to La Niña's dryness
for our region.

The State of the Atmosphere: Is the remainder of April set to be a dud for active weather?