Thursday evening update on weekend storm

For those of you who jumped on the site this morning, you would have seen a Winter Storm Watch issued by the National Weather Service for the potential of 7 - 12" for Denver. Since then, they have reduced that number to 4 - 10", which reflects the uncertainties we have been discussing here for days. The Winter Storm Watch remains, and goes into effect late Friday night.

Not much new to report since last night. Models continue to be at odds on how this system eventually tracks across Colorado, and with that it would still be a disservice to issue an official snow totals forecast. In general, even the more bullish models have come down a bit today, so even if we managed a more favorable track, and mostly (or all) snow, 10" certainly seems to be the high side at this time. We will continue with our 3 - 6" range until further notice.

The NAM and GEM 12z models pulled most of our moisture well to the north and east. The NAM so much so, in fact, that I was willing to ignore it completely if it were not for other models hinting at similar solutions. The EURO and GFS remain more favorable for us, though the GFS remains warmer, limiting snowfall especially north of the city.

Here is a good graphic from Matt showing the breakdown for 4, 8, and 12 inches in Denver as of this afternoon.