August 30th, 2016: Long Range Forecast Update

CFSv2 Model Precipitation Forecast

September (blue = wetter than normal while green and brown = drier than normal):

NMME Precipitation Forecast (green=wetter than normal while brown=drier than normal)





It is interesting that the CFSv2 Model and the NMME have different thoughts about what lies ahead for September. The CFSv2 has a dry pocket over Southeast Colorado, while the NMME continues the flow of monsoon moisture from the southwest. I do think the first two weeks of September will offer chances for rain, as the monsoon flow continues for a while longer. However, the latter part of the month may dry out a bit. Beyond September, there really isn’t a good signal one way or the other through December. I believe October could be a bit active, November likely drier, with December possibly offering more moisture. With La Nina not really developing, and the PDO staying positive/warm, I continue to not be worried about serious drought returning…yet.