The State of the Atmosphere: Monday, May 14th, 2018

Very few areas of Northern Colorado picked up notable moisture since our last SOTA, but the forecast holds more rain chances as you are about to see.

The past seven days of rain compared to the average precipitation is shown here, dismal for most of the state:

A few very strong thunderstorms did drop isolated high rainfall totals, which is nice but clearly, we need to spread the 'wealth'.

Sadly, some of those same storms were severe with large hail and others caused damage with accumulating small hail.

Take today's storms for an example, most of what blew through the Denver metro area was non-severe but impactful because of the hail's accumulation:

There have been a number of hail reports with the recent storms and that is not surprising and will remain a threat for this week and weekend with more storms ahead.

Although Tuesday's severe weather threat is lower than Monday's, there will still be a risk of hail with strong storms developing near the city and pushing eastward, gaining strength, over the eastern plains from the afternoon through the evening.

Wednesday and Thursday will have lower chances of rain, just isolated thunderstorms. And, these will be the hottest days of the week - well into the 70s.

By Friday, like several of our past Fridays, there comes a system that will increase widespread rain chances and make for an unsettled weekend with cooler temperatures, too.

This system isn't too strong; it's broad and weak. Yet, it'll be strong enough to drop temperatures into the 50s and 60s while trying to throw rain on us.

Now, before you look at the next image I want to point out that the models are seeing isolated thunderstorms with heavy rain for localized areas through this week and weekend. With that said, someone could come area with several inches of rainfall (and more hail, too). However, I strongly doubt the number of us getting that much rainfall will be as widespread as this model's (American GFS) projection indicates:

Nevertheless, it is encouraging to keep the rain chances going. Although, the outlook still doesn't favor the parts of the state that need it most. Here's the latest drought monitor showing no long-term drought for the north and the highest category, exceptional drought, for the south.
So, here the forecast for the week (did you know you can always access current conditions and the forecast by hitting our Current Conditions Page Link?):


This is a collaborative post from multiple authors at Weather5280.

Denver, Colorado
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