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Snowfall Probabilities

If you're able to get out an enjoy the day today... do! MOS guidance has highs in Denver near 60°F this afternoon, which will feel like summer after the recent chilly weather.

Thursday will again be warm, but windy and cooling as we head late in the day. What once looked like a decent cold front for Thursday night into Friday now does not look all that impressive. Some rain and snow showers (perhaps some mixed precipitation too) will be possible across Northeast Colorado Thursday night, but we aren't expecting much in the way of accumulation.

Today's 3 day snowfall probabilities are quite low:

Friday will be cooler, but not cold. Highs likely in the 40s and 50s across Northeast Colorado, with drying conditions. The latest high-res NAM shows GOOD mountain snow over the next 60 hours, but not much action east of the mountains. The best chance for snow across the plains will be near the Wyoming state line Thursday night into Friday morning, with only isolated snow chances doing something across the Palmer Divide:

The storm track is an active one, and pinning down details day to day is difficult. Looking to the next seven days or so... we see the system that swings through Thursday into Friday:

Another moving through Saturday which will likely bring colder temperatures to the Eastern Plains for Saturday, but again mainly be a mountain snow event:

With another push of cold air that could deliver a bit of snow to the urban corridor by Sunday into Monday, along with some chilly air to end the weekend/start next week:

As for how much snow any of these systems may deliver to the urban corridor/Eastern Plains? Hard to say, to be honest. None are looking all that impressive east of the mountain at this time, but it does seem likely that we'll see some snow here at some point over the next week. At the moment it looks less and less likely that comes Thursday night (though not impossible), and more likely that best snow chance comes late in the weekend/next week.

If we look at seven day probabilities... our gamblers like the idea of some snow. Latest operational GFS has backed off considerably for late this weekend/next week, but... modeling is a complete mess right now, so try not reading too much into a given run or two. The storm track is active, but also rather fast/progressive. So while it seems likely we'll see some snow, we'll need things to align just right for any significant snow east of the mountains over the next week.

If we look at probabilities from the Euro, we see it has good odds most of Colorado sees an inch of snow over the next week:

But lesser odds for greater than 2". It's been keying on a southerly storm track for late weekend/early next week, which is why it's probabilities favor the southern Front Range over the northern urban corridor:

In short... Plan on a couple of mild days today and tomorrow. A system swings through tomorrow night and will bring some rain and snow to the plains, but likely not much for most. The weekend starts a cool down, with some very cold air on the way early next week as it looks right now. Best snow chances for Denver may come later this weekend, but highly uncertain at this time. Stay tuned!

niw

Brendan Heberton

Brendan is founder of Weather5280. He is co-founder of FreshyMap, and develops software for geospatial data analysis and visualization.

Denver, Colorado
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