The State of the Atmosphere: Sunday, August 4, 2019

The state of the atmosphere remains mostly unchanged as we head into the first full week of August. The monsoon continues to struggle, but we enter a pattern that perhaps will represent more often as a monsoonal pattern over the next 10 to 15 days than we have seen as of yet this summer.

The week ahead
Global models aren't all that excited about precipitation totals over the next week for the plains, but the mean ridge does shift east from time to time, and with it we see surges of monsoonal moisture push into the state and increased daily storm chances. Global models won't sniff out a thunderstorm in your backyard days out, so do not sweat too much (but definitely a little) if the maps below show no rain at your place this week.

Daily storm chances across the northern urban corridor will range from the 30 to 40% range to 50 to 70% range depending on the day this week.

The greatest storm activity is forecast to be over the southern and central mountains and secondarily across the Southeast Plains, corresponding with the greatest probabilities for rainfall over 0.5" this coming week from the European model:

The Palmer Divide is likely to see some good storm activity as well, with the Springs likely seeing their fair share of storm afternoons too.

For Denver north along I-25 we do see that those storm chances overall will be higher each afternoon as compared to recent weeks -- but, I have a very hard time getting all too excited about our prospects overall. I suspect we see a few good storms each day, and if you end up under one great, otherwise more of the same. Today, so far, has been a great example of this:

The high-res NAM, which takes us through Tuesday evening, shows pockets of heavy rains across the plains, but greatest coverage over the mountains.

By Thursday the ridge gets further east...

And with that we see a surge in moisture...

Which may very well lead to the greatest storm coverage of the week across Eastern Colorado, very similar to last week. We'll keep an eye on this.

Here's to hoping for some rain this week. I realize the metro area really missed much of last week's storm activity, but overall we certainly saw an uptick in rain coverage. Here's a look at totals over the last seven days:

Hope everyone has a good week, be kind to one another.

Brendan Heberton

Brendan is founder of Weather5280. He is co-founder of FreshyMap, and develops software for geospatial data analysis and visualization.

Denver, Colorado
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