The State of the Atmosphere: Sunday, August 18th, 2019

As we search the forecast for a relief from the heat this August, we don't see much promise for finding any. The week ahead features more daily highs in the 80s and 90s for Northeast Colorado (and more 90s than 80s at that), with Monday nearing the century mark for many locales across eastern Colorado –– NAM MOS has a high of 97°F Monday, we're going with 98°F for the city.

Even with the continued heat, you may have noticed a few cooler mornings over the last week or so. Denver saw a couple overnight lows drop into the 50s this past week, with even a degree or two on average being shaved off as compared to July starting to give the occasional hint of fall.

With the next five days featuring above average temperatures (below) for the Four Corners region (including most of Colorado) it's hard to believe we're just two short months away from Denver's average first measurable snow, October 18th. Even more difficult to believe is we're just shy of two weeks out from Denver's earliest snow on record, which was set on September 3rd, 1961. In short, we've got some more summer to work through, but we're quickly approaching a season of change.

Aside from the heat ahead this week we will see occasional storm chances as well. Like last week, I expect most folks don't see much storm activity most days -- but those that do could see some heavy rain and perhaps strong winds and hail as well. As we sit today, Tuesday evening and Wednesday look like Denver's best storm chances, which will also line up with the coolest day of the week (Wednesday) for the city. A welcome break from the early week heat.

The latest SPC outlook has the greatest threat for severe storms Tuesday focused over extreme Northeast Colorado, but these boundaries will fluctuate between now and then. A few strong storms both Tuesday and Wednesday across eastern Colorado will be possible.

Will see see record-setting hail again this week as we did last? Likely not, but big hail is a possibility nonetheless. Last week a hailstone measuring 4.83" in diameter broke the old state record of 4.5". Incredible!

So, prep for some heat on Monday... hope for some rain and Tuesday and Wednesday, and otherwise enjoy what's likely to be another rather straightforward summer week across the state.

The GFS shows some rain across Eastern Colorado this week, but very dry conditions for the western half of the state

Fall is not far off now.