Matt Makens

The latest drought monitor continues to show the ongoing issues for the Four
Corners region and the continued Extreme Drought over western Kansas and parts
of Texas.



Let's check the recent conditions via The National Drought Mitigation Center,
University of Nebraska-Lincoln:

Summary

"A series of Pacific fronts brought welcome moisture to the Northwest (from
northern California northward into Washington), but even with this
precipitation, the Water Year to Date (WYTD; since Oct. 1) basin average
precipitation and Snow Water Content (SWC) were still well below normal
(30-70%). Farther east, frigid Arctic air (weekly average temperatures up to 15
degree F below normal) was bottled up in the northern Plains and upper Midwest
(and central Canada), while the West, South, and East observed above-normal
readings (weekly temperature anomalies + 3 to 6 degree F). As the fronts
progressed eastward, they slowed and waves of low pressure developed along the
fronts, generating widespread rains (1-4 inches, locally to 8 inches) in the
Southeast, mid-Atlantic, and along coastal New England. In the colder air to the
north, the precipitation fell as snow, blanketing parts of the lower Missouri
and Ohio Valleys, northern Appalachians, eastern Great Lakes region, and
interior New England with light to moderate totals (2-6 inches). In contrast,
the Southwest, Plains, and western Corn Belt were mainly dry. In Alaska,
above-normal temperatures prevailed across the state, with decent precipitation
observed along the southern coast. Shower activity increased across the eastern
Hawaiian Islands, allowing for some improvements on the Big Island."

The precipitation for the past two weeks is quite low for the southwest and
through a large section of the corn belt. This is the percent of normal
precipitation:

Whereas the past 30 days is more robust for the Southwest but also indicates the
ongoing dryness of the central plains to the midwest:



Looking ahead

The precipitation outlook for the next week, running through the 26th) is wet
for the far western US and the Southeast. The Nation's midsection is likely to
be drier than average:

The amount of snow for the next seven days favors the Pacific Northwest:


And, looking at week-two, we see a consensus on wetter than average conditions
across much of the country, a flip from week-one.


For the next month, we see a trend toward much drier than average conditions for
the Northeast, as well as much of the Rockies and Sierras.


With the above outlooks, we are likely to see the drought remain and possibly
increase for eastern Colorado and Western Kansas. Texas will likely see the
drought spread and grow into early January. Improvements are possible in the
Four Corners region.

Drought Update & The Outlook: December 19th, 2019