Matt Makens

The latest drought monitor continues to show the ongoing issues for the Four
Corners region and the continued Extreme Drought over western Kansas and parts
of Texas. The Pacific Northwest, despite recent wet weather, remains in a
notably dry condition also. The long term impact areas of concern remain the
Four Corners and portions of Southern Texas.



Let's check the new conditions via The National Drought Mitigation Center,
University of Nebraska-Lincoln:

Summary

"Over the past week, primarily light to moderate precipitation fell from east
Texas northeast through New England. Heavier precipitation amounts of 2 to 6
inches were embedded within the larger precipitation swath, affecting areas from
southwest Louisiana to the southern Appalachian Mountains. Heavy precipitation
amounts, including mountain snow, fell in the Pacific Northwest and the central
and northern Rocky Mountains. Warmer than normal temperatures also covered most
of the continental U.S., with the warmest conditions (compared to normal) taking
place in the northern states. In the West, many areas that received significant
mountain snow in the past few weeks saw an improvement in drought conditions,
while areas that missed out on the snow or still had significant precipitation
deficits did not see improvements to their drought depiction. Improvements or
degradations in conditions east of the Rocky Mountains were primarily in
response to significant precipitation occurring, or lack thereof, over the past
several weeks. Degradations made in parts of central and southern Texas also
occurred due to high evaporative demand and the associated negative impacts on
soil moisture."

Observations

The precipitation for the past two weeks had been quite wet for a large section
of the corn belt. This is the percent of normal precipitation:

Whereas the past 30 days worth of precipitation isn't as robust except for the
Southeast, and parts of the corn belt:



The Outlook: Week 1

The precipitation outlook for the next week (running through the 16th) is
favorable for the far western US and a big swath of the central to the eastern
US.

The long term drought areas of concern, mentioned above, remain mostly dry:

Take a look at the amount of that precipitation to come as snow for the next
seven days impacts the West and Great Lakes:


The Outlook: Week 2

And, looking at the week after we see a consensus on wetter than average
conditions across the northern and eastern states but likely drier than average
conditions are to continue in the long term drought areas:


The Outlook: Month

For the next month, we see drier than average conditions from the southwest to
the central and southern plains, again no relief for the existing long term
drought areas. The wet weather trapped in the Pacific Northwest and along/east
of the Mississippi.

This image shows drier vs. wetter than average areas for the coming month:


Bottom Line

With the above outlooks, we are likely to see no to minimal improvement in the
drought for the Four Corners region or in Texas in January. Areas in southern
Texas will see the drought spread/increase.

Drought Update & The Outlook: January 9th, 2020