Matt Makens

The latest drought monitor continues to show the ongoing issues for the Four
Corners region and the continued Extreme Drought over western Kansas, parts of
Texas, and the Pacific Northwest.

Drought numbers overall increased by 1.57% from last week:



Let's check the recent conditions via The National Drought Mitigation Center,
University of Nebraska-Lincoln:

Summary

"Pacific weather systems migrated across the contiguous U.S. (CONUS) in a fairly
westerly jet stream flow during this U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) week. East of
the Rockies, they tapped Gulf of Mexico moisture and dropped above-normal
precipitation in a storm track that stretched from Texas to the Great Lakes. The
jet stream flow amplified as the week progressed, producing a strong trough over
the eastern CONUS with a ridge migrating across the West into the central CONUS.
Cold arctic air was directed by the trough into the East behind surface frontal
low pressure systems. The Pacific fronts dropped precipitation along the coastal
ranges, but the air masses quickly dried out as they crossed the interior West,
resulting in below-normal precipitation from the High Plains west to the coastal
ranges. The Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic coasts were mostly drier than normal.
Weekly temperatures were warmer than normal from Texas to the Mid-Atlantic, and
colder than normal along the West Coast and northern to central Plains. Drought
and abnormal dryness expanded across parts of the West, southern Plains and Gulf
Coast, and Mid-Atlantic coast, but contracted in parts of the northern Rockies
and southern to central Plains, as well as Hawaii and the Alaska panhandle."

Observations

The precipitation for the past two weeks in terms of the percent of normal is
shown here:

And, for the past 30 days:



The Outlook: Week 1

The precipitation outlook for the next week, running through the 30th, is
favorable for the far western US and the Appalachians to New England.

The amount of snow for the next seven days favors the Cascades:


The Outlook: Week 2

And, looking at the week after we see the higher likelihood of wetter than
average conditions across the northern US and east coast but likely drier than
average conditions from California to the midsection:


The Outlook: Month

For the next month, we see a trend toward much drier than average conditions for
California, as well as much of the Nation's midsection. The East, the Cascades,
and Northern Rockies are more likely to see wetter than normal conditions.


Bottom Line

With the above outlooks, we are likely to see the drought remain and possibly
increase for the Four Corners and parts of Texas where the most substantial
drought is today.

Drought Update & The Outlook: January 23rd, 2020