Matt Makens

The latest drought monitor continues to show the ongoing issues for the Four
Corners region and the continued Extreme Drought over western Kansas, parts of
Texas, and the Pacific Northwest.

Drought numbers overall decreased by 1.55% from last week:



Let's check the new conditions via The National Drought Mitigation Center,
University of Nebraska-Lincoln:

Summary

"Heavy precipitation affected large parts of the Nation last week, with heavy
snow in the central Rockies bringing some relief to the dry areas there. The
broadest area of heavy precipitation stretched from the Middle Atlantic States
southwestward into the Lower Mississippi Valley and the Southeast. At least 2
inches fell from the Ohio River to near the Gulf and southern Atlantic Coasts,
with 7 to 10 inches measured across the much of the interior Southeast. On the
other side of the 48 states, heavy precipitation covered parts of the Northwest.
Near the coast in Washington and northern Oregon, most locations recorded at
least 4 inches of precipitation, with isolated amounts to 10 inches in higher
elevations. Just to the east, along the Cascade Range from central Oregon
northward, a broad swath received at least 5 inches of precipitation, and most
of a strip through central Washington reported 10 to locally 15 inches. Well
inland, in the central and northern Rockies, precipitation was largely
elevation-dependent. The more elevated regions observed 2 to 5 inches, with
lesser amounts in adjacent areas of lower elevation. Heavier amounts more
broadly covered central Idaho and adjacent areas in Washington and Oregon, with
totals of 4 to locally 8 inches common. It was another week of above-normal
temperatures in the East and part of the interior Northwest, while subnormal
readings were recorded in the central Rockies where the heavy snowfall dominated
the week. Temperatures were 10 to 15 degrees F warmer than normal in the
east-central States and part of the interior Southeast, and most sites east of
the Mississippi River were at least 4 degrees F above normal. Many locations
across the Country averaged 2 to as much as 5 degrees F above normal since
mid-November 2019, especially east of the Mississippi River and the interior
Rockies and Far West."

Observations

The precipitation for the past two weeks in terms of the percent of normal is
shown here:

And, for the past 30 days:



The Outlook: Week 1

The precipitation outlook for the next week, running through the 20th, is
favorable for the far northwestern US and the Appalachians to New England, far
western Texas and parts of the Rockies.

The amount of snow for the next seven days favors the mountainous regions, but
check out southern New Mexico and western Texas:


The Outlook: Week 2

And, looking at the week after we see the higher likelihood of drier than
average conditions across the western US and wetter than average for the
southern plains to the east coast:


The Outlook: Month

For the next month, we see a trend toward much drier than average conditions for
a substantial portion of the country. The Appalachians are most likely to see
wetter than normal conditions.


Bottom Line

With the above outlooks, we are likely to see the drought remain and possibly
increase for the Four Corners and parts of the Northwest. Texas may see some
improvement in the drought over the next two weeks.

Drought Update & The Outlook: February 13th, 2020