The State of the Atmosphere: Monday, March 23rd, 2020

A system will approach for the end of the week, but at this time it doesn't appear to be as robust or as wet as the system last week.

Let's do a quick check on precipitation for the month. Here is the month to date precipitation anomaly:

So far, we see the highest surplus is over the Northern Front Range and pockets of the mountains and Western Slope. Southern Colorado is in a deficit for the month. Still, with last week's wet storm, a great to see the above average moisture for many given the outlook some weeks back.

Temperatures, meanwhile, are warmer than average across the board:

Although the temperatures will cool a bit later this week, the warmer than average trend is to continue.

The next chance for moisture is coming Friday with those cooler temperatures, but that system may only add to surplus areas and not bring much to southern Colorado yet again.

It's early to talk about specific forecast details regarding total precipitation and/or snowfall totals, but just a quick look at both shows where the next system may favor.

So, what leads up to that Friday change? Warming temperatures for one, and a passive chance for some rain/snow Monday.

Let's touch on the Monday chance first. Here's the HRRR model showing areas of rain and snow late Monday through early Tuesday:

You'll see a quick chance for some precipitation on the Palmer Divide this evening. Those showers scoot east quickly.

There's just a bit of energy to create these showers; clouds and some wind are also possible.

Beyond this chance, though, there are some drier days ahead. And, that leads us to the warm-up.

The daily high and low are shown for Denver. It is possible that some neighborhoods in the metro areas will come closer to the 70s. Regardless, the next few days will be warmer than average for the season.

You see temperatures take a subtle dip late in the week and that part of that weather maker  for Friday. Here's an animation from Thursday through Saturday to show that system develop and pass over.

Of course, we will post more on that system as we get closer.