Matt Makens

We are just getting started seeing those elevated and critical fire outlooks cover the state. 

As I ran through my morning update (I have a python script run nightly to send
me pertinent images as a morning briefing) a couple of things grabbed my
attention.

First, for Colorado, we have elevated and critical fire dangers for parts of the
state today:

There are red flag warnings in place to address this.

What I find notable about the fire danger is the, seemingly, misunderstanding
the general public has on how dry we are as a state.

Yes, a number of stations had historic season snowfall totals
[https://www.weather5280.com/blog/2020/04/24/many-colorado-weather-stations-make-top-20-snowfall-lists-in-2019-2020-season/] 
but that is a small part of the story. 

Our Becky Bolinger just published a piece discussing the drought
[https://www.weather5280.com/blog/2020/05/02/drought-expands-across-southern-colorado/] 
that should be on your reading list.

Another item that grabbed my attention is for those east of Colorado. A general
look at today's storm threat covers Oklahoma and Texas.

This severe weather threat comes after Wednesday's relative quiet day and a lack
of any storm reports. The storm report map is likely to be much more populated
by late Thursday.

Colorado hasn't had much of a storm threat, just a bit last weekend, so far this
season. The outlook doesn't change that, at least at this point.

We do have an increased chance for some storminess next week, after very hit and
miss showers(rain and snow) for the state Friday through Mother's Day. But, the
stormiest areas are likely to remain east of Colorado.

Let me add some data to those general interpretations. 

Look at the teleconnections, we do see a trend in the PNA which, to me,
indicates a return to wetter conditions but not such a dramatic swing that we
should expect too much. That combined with the NAO, which shows a weakening
blocking setup, I think we will see the greatest storminess east of us.

Indeed the result of the analogs (most similar past patterns) show an eastern
bias to the wetter conditions that I just described.

I guess my ramblings, and key takeaway from the morning brief, is that we are
increasingly dry, already in critical fire conditions, and my interpretation of
the next week to ten days is a drier than average outlook for us which leads me
to think we are just getting started seeing those elevated and critical fire
outlooks cover the state.

Weather5280 Insider

Elevated fire danger followed by a drier than average outlook

We are just getting started seeing those elevated and critical fire outlooks cover the state. #cowx 