Matt Makens

The latest drought monitor continues to show the ongoing issues for the Four
Corners region and the continued Extreme Drought in parts of Colorado,
California, Oregon, and Texas.



Let's check the recent conditions via The National Drought Mitigation Center,
University of Nebraska-Lincoln:

Summary

"A strong cold front progressed southeast across the Great Plains, Mississippi
Valley, and Southeast on April 28 and 29. This cold front was a focus for a
severe weather outbreak from Oklahoma and eastern Texas east to the middle and
lower Mississippi Valley. As this front shifted south, heavy rain (more than 2
inches) fell from the western Gulf Coast east to the Florida Big Bend and
Florida Gulf Coast. A summer-like ridge of high pressure aloft led to an early
and persistent heat wave across southern California and the Desert Southwest
during late April into early May. Much above normal temperatures also affected
the southern Rockies and southern Great Plains. To the north of this upper-level
ridge, multiple low pressure systems along a nearly stationary front resulted in
occasional thunderstorms with locally heavy rain (1 inch or more) to the central
Great Plains, middle Mississippi Valley, and Ohio Valley. Onshore flow led to a
wet start to May across the coastal Pacific Northwest, but little to no
precipitation was observed across the Great Basin. Surface low pressure,
centered across the Gulf of Alaska, resulted in light to moderate precipitation
amounts to the Kenai Peninsula, southeast mainland Alaska, and the Alaska
Panhandle. Rainfall was generally suppressed across the tropical central and
eastern Pacific, including Hawaii, during late April into the beginning of May.
This dry pattern over the tropics extended east to Puerto Rico."

Looking at the vegetative stress on rangeland and cropland, the stress is
highest in those drought areas, obviously.

Sadly, even with average precipitation the stressed areas will only maintain a
stressed growth. Only above average precipitation will help at this point and
the odds of that are low as we discussed in our long-term outlook
[https://www.weather5280.com/blog/2020/04/29/long-range-update-may-june-july-2020/]
.

Observations

The precipitation for the past two weeks - This is the percent of normal
precipitation:

And, the past 30 days:


The Outlook: Week 1

The total precipitation outlook for the next week:


The Outlook: Week 2

And, looking at the week after in general terms:


The Outlook: Month

For the next month:


Bottom Line

With the above outlooks, we are likely to see the drought remain and
increaseacross the country. Drought is likely to develop in the northern plains
and expand from the Four Corners region to the east.

Drought update & the outlook: Saturday, May 9th, 2020