Matt Makens

The latest drought monitor continues to show the ongoing issues for the Four
Corners region, namely Colorado, and the continued Extreme Drought for the
Western US. 

For Colorado, the area of extreme drought increased by ~6 percent. Speaking of
Colorado, this week's NRCS snowfall report was released with a notable quote:

> Wow, "To express the degree of the dry conditions, 49 out of 115 Colorado SNOTEL
sites received the lowest or second lowest precipitation amounts on record for
the combined months of April and May." - NRCS pic.twitter.com/GWmBMRypXF
[https://t.co/GWmBMRypXF]

— Matt Makens (@MattMakens) June 11, 2020
[https://twitter.com/MattMakens/status/1270929008885104640?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw]
Let's check the recent conditions via The National Drought Mitigation Center,
University of Nebraska-Lincoln:

Summary

"A strong upper-level ridge developed over the Southwest at the beginning of
June, and expanded east to the southern Great Plains. 7-day temperatures (June 2
to 8) averaged more than 10 degrees F above normal across much of the southern
to central Great Plains until a strong cold front arrived on June 9. From June 6
to 8, a vigorous upper-level trough progressed east and resulted in varying
amounts of rainfall and much cooler temperatures from the Pacific Northwest to
the northern Rockies and northern Great Plains. Around the periphery of the
upper-level ridge, mesoscale convective systems with severe thunderstorms and
locally heavy rain (more than 2 inches) occurred from the Upper and Middle
Mississippi Valley southeast to the mid-Atlantic. After spending multiple days
stationary over southern Mexico, Tropical Storm Cristobal tracked north across
the Gulf of Mexico and made landfall in southeast Louisiana on June 7. The
heaviest rainfall occurred to the east of its landfall. 7-day precipitation
amounts (ending 12Z June 9) exceeded 5 inches, with locally higher amounts, from
the Mississippi Gulf Coast east to the Florida Panhandle. A weak surface low
remained located across the Gulf of Alaska at the beginning of June. The most
widespread rainfall (more than 1 inch) occurred across southeast coastal Alaska,
while scattered convection raised wildfire concerns over the interior of Alaska.
Rainfall was suppressed ¬across Hawaii this past week, while heavy rainfall
occurred well west of Puerto Rico during the first week of June."

Observations

The precipitation for the past two weeks is quite wet for those in the path of
the tropical system that moved along the Mississippi and spread heavy storm
activity over Florida. This is the percent of normal precipitation:


And, the past 30 days:

The Outlook: Week 1

The precipitation outlook for the next week, running through June 18th) is
favorable for the far northwestern US and sections of the upper Midwest, but too
much rainfall is possible in parts of the Carolinas. 


The Outlook: Week 2

For week 2, let's see the general probability of drier versus wetter than
average areas from NOAA. Given the pattern, and absence of persistent storminess
over the drought regions, it is hard to believe we will have most of the country
wetter than average. Of course, this is just a probability of wetter vs drier
conditions. In my opinion it is too excited for wetter than average
possibilities.


The Outlook: Month

For the next month, we see a trend toward much drier than average conditions for
brown shaded areas (extremely so in the reds), and wetter than average in the
green shaded regions, that are few. The corn belt will not favor from
precipitation in June and early July.

Bottom Line

With the above outlooks, we are likely to see the drought expand it's reach onto
more of the plains during the month.

Drought update & the outlook: Thursday, June 11th, 2020