Matt Makens

Extreme drought increases in the past week with unusually warm temperatures and
lots of wind. 

The latest drought monitor continues to show the ongoing issues for the Four
Corners region, namely Colorado, and the continued Extreme Drought for the
Western US. 

Let's check the recent conditions via The National Drought Mitigation Center,
University of Nebraska-Lincoln:

Summary

"Significant rainfall missed most areas of dryness and drought across the
contiguous 48 states, with improvements limited to part of the northern
Intermountain West, central Kansas, and a few isolated spots in both Oregon and
upstate New York. Elsewhere, dry conditions persisted or intensified. In
particular, abnormally hot weather, low humidity, and gusty winds have led to
rapidly-intensifying dryness across the Plains States. Extreme drought expanded
in northern New Mexico, part of central and western Oklahoma, eastern Colorado,
and western Kansas while broad areas of abnormal dryness and some moderate
drought were introduced farther north."

Observations

Observations the past two weeks. This is the percent of normal precipitation:


And, the past 30 days:

The Outlook: Week 1

The precipitation outlook for the next week, running through June 25th is
favorable for much of the plains, including Colorado's southeastern quarter.
Oklahoma and parts of Iowa will need to monitor for possible localized flooding. 


The Outlook: Week 2

For week 2, let's see the general probability of drier versus wetter than
average areas from NOAA. Given the pattern, and absence of persistent storminess
over the drought regions, it is hard to believe we will have most of the country
wetter than average. The precipitation pattern, as shown above for the next
week, almost carries over for a second week except for the wetness added to the
Intermountain West.


The Outlook: Month

For the next month, we see a trend toward much drier than average conditions for
brown shaded areas (extremely so in the reds), and wetter than average in the
green shaded regions. This runs through mid-July and is an indication that the
stormier pattern we have on the plains during the next two weeks may very well
benefit the next month's worth of precipitation.

Bottom line:

It is expected to see drought numbers increase due to the relative dryness that
will cover most of the western US, including the Four Corners region where the
drought is very likely to worsen and spread.

Drought update & the outlook: Thursday, June 18th, 2020