Matt Makens

Exceptional drought conditions were removed from Colorado and Kansas this week
thanks to some thundershower activity.

H
[https://www.weather5280.com/blog/2020/06/30/july-outlook-temperature-pattern-to-shift-but-precipitation-likely-to-remain-much-the-same/]
owever, the drought categories D1 to D4  expanded in coverage area by less than
a percentage.

There were observed evaporation stresses east of the Rockies, but some surpluses
found across the Western US also. 

Expect the evaporative stress to be high for the Four Corners region and much of
the country's plains this week due to extreme heat expected.

Let's check the recent conditions via The National Drought Mitigation Center,
University of Nebraska-Lincoln:

Summary

"A trough of low pressure over the West kept much of the Northwest and Southwest
unseasonably cool for early July, while high pressure, high humidity, and
stalled or slow-moving fronts were the focus for scattered showers and
thunderstorms across most of the Plains, middle and lower Mississippi and
Tennessee River Valleys, the Southeast, and along eastern sections of the
mid-Atlantic and New England. The greatest weekly totals (more than 2 inches)
fell on the Dakotas, western parts of Illinois, Kentucky, and Tennessee, the
lower Mississippi Valley, and along the eastern two-thirds of the Gulf and the
southern Atlantic Coasts (including Florida). Light to moderate amounts (0.5-2
inches) were reported from western Washington eastward to western Minnesota,
throughout most of the Plains and Southeast, and in eastern sections of the
Northeast. Little or no precipitation fell on most of the Far West, Southwest,
southern Texas, the Corn Belt, and western portions of the mid-Atlantic and New
England. Temperatures averaged above normal east of the Rockies, especially in
the Northern Great Plains, upper Midwest, and Great Lakes region that saw weekly
departures of +4 to 10 degrees F. Temperatures averaged close to normal in the
Southeast and lower Mississippi River Valley where frequent bouts of rain and
clouds kept readings down. In Hawaii, windward shower activity increased later
in the period, but was not enough to make any major improvements. Subnormal
rainfall continued across Puerto Rico except in northwestern sections of the
island, deteriorating conditions across eastern areas. In Alaska, light
precipitation was measured at most stations, but a dry June around the Kenai
Peninsula area warranted some D0 in southwestern Alaska."

Observations

Observations the past two weeks. Note, we are starting to see a wetter trend for
the northern plains and Rockies as expected - we discussed this likelihood in
our July outlook
[https://www.weather5280.com/blog/2020/06/30/july-outlook-temperature-pattern-to-shift-but-precipitation-likely-to-remain-much-the-same/]
. This is the percent of normal precipitation:


And, the past 30 days:

The Outlook: Week 1

The precipitation outlook for the next week, running through July 16th is
favorable for much of the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Plus, persistent
chances of thunderstorms over parts of western Nebraska and Kansas.


The Outlook: Week 2

For week 2, let's see the general probability of drier versus wetter than
average areas from NOAA. Given the pattern, and absence of persistent storminess
over the drought regions, it is easy to see why the highest drought region will
remain drier than average. 

The above average areas of precipitation are most likely across the northern
tier of states, also like our July forecast
[https://www.weather5280.com/blog/2020/06/30/july-outlook-temperature-pattern-to-shift-but-precipitation-likely-to-remain-much-the-same/]
.


The Outlook: Month

For the next month, we see a trend toward much drier than average conditions for
brown shaded areas (extremely so in the reds), and wetter than average in the
green shaded regions. The favored precipitation areas will be the northern high
plains.

The monsoon's forecast isn't all that exciting and we feel that it will be a
bust this year. So, the long-term forecast that goes beyond the next month to
include all of August will also likely remain drier than average over the most
extreme drought areas that we see currently.

Bottom line:

It is expected to see drought numbers increase due to the relative dryness that
will cover the Four Corners region where the drought is very likely to worsen
and spread. 

The next month will not bring much moisture to Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado,
Kansas, Oklahoma, and Nebraska.

Here is the outlook in terms of drought growth or decay for the month of July,
the highlight being the far northern plains:

Drought update & the outlook: July 9th, 2020