Matt Makens

There's a wet period, for a few days, approaching late this weekend through
early next week. This looks especially true for portions of Southern Colorado,
but could extend across Northeast Colorado as well depending on how things
ultimately evolve. 

This rainier stretch, although likely a brief one, will be much needed. Let's
look at the past two weeks of precipitation:

Hmmm, doesn't that look ugly from a water standpoint?! Clearly, no 'monsoon'
signal in the past two weeks with big deficits across the Four Corners region. 

During the next several days we will see a sub-tropical High develop over the
Nation's midsection: 

This will prompt a flow of tropical moisture from the Gulf to Mexico and into
our region.

The higher rainfall totals are likely from Mexico to eastern Arizona, western
New Mexico, into southern Colorado.

This weather pattern would be the monsoon if only it could last to make a true
wet season. Sadly, we see the upper air pattern shift again beyond early next
week.

The average 10-day weather pattern indicates that ridge to push west after our
wetter few days.

This pattern can still bring in some tropical moisture but is far more limited
than in the high is farther east, and of course could change in exact placement
between now and then as well. 

The next month's height anomalies show a persistent ridge over the Southwest,
which remains unfavorable for an extended wet period. If this pans out, it'll be
hard to have much of a monsoon season this year in Colorado. 

At least we have moisture on the way, but not for all of us.

I'd like to write that all metro areas will see more than one or even two inches
of rain. The probabilities simply don't support that for everyone at this time. 

Colorado Springs is likely to come out of this phase with quite a bit of rain:

As shown, there is a chance to reach the two-inch measurements in the three and
four day periods.

However, moving north to Fort Collins we see that probability drop
significantly.

As data appear now, southern Colorado - say on and south of the Palmer Divide -
will come away with the best rainfall totals. Those north of the Palmer will see
the totals drop the farther north one goes.

Something that remains to be seen? Let's watch how a number of tropical systems
in the Gulf alter our chances for appreciable rain in the coming days.

My hope is those systems don't cutoff our flow and leave us drier than average
for the week.

Forecast continues to show increased rain chances in the days ahead, but how long will it last?