Matt Makens

The latest drought monitor released Thursday continues to show the primary
issues around the Four Corners region to Texas as well as the Pacific Northwest.
The moderate and severe drought classification areas did increase for the week.

With the slight increase in drought, it is refreshing to see that the
evaporative stress in the drought regions wasn't high in the past two weeks as
it had been earlier in July.

Let's check the recent conditions via The National Drought Mitigation Center,
University of Nebraska-Lincoln:

Summary

"As Tropical Storm Isaias churned through the northern Caribbean and then
northward along the east coast of the United States, an active pattern from the
central Plains through the Midwest also brought precipitation with it.
Temperatures were cooler through the center of the country, with departures of 6
to 8 degrees below normal in Kansas and Oklahoma while temperatures were well
above normal in the Northwest, Southwest and from the Mid-Atlantic up into New
England. Several areas broke or tied temperature records for the month: Phoenix
had their all-time warmest month ever with an average temperature of 98.9
degrees and Tucson also had their warmest July ever at 91.5 degrees, breaking
the previous warmest July by almost a full degree (90.6 degrees in 2005). Sitka,
Alaska reached 88 degrees on July 31, tying an all-time record high originally
set on July 30, 1976. Richland, Washington recorded 113 degrees on July 30,
tying an all-time record high first achieved on August 5, 1961."

Observations

Observations the past two weeks. This is the percent of normal precipitation:

And, the past 30 days:

The Outlook: Week 1

The precipitation outlook for the next week, running through August 13th is
shows some tropical moisture spread from Mexico into parts of New Mexico and
Texas, albeit a dismal amount. The monsoon of 2020 remains absent.

The Outlook: Week 2

For week 2, let's see the general probability of drier versus wetter than
average areas from NOAA. Given the existing pattern, absence of persistent
storminess over the drought regions, and the lack of monsoon it is easy to see
why the highest drought region will remain drier than average. 

The above average areas of precipitation are more likely in parts of the deep
south. 

The Outlook: 

For the next month, we see a trend toward much drier than average conditions for
brown shaded areas (extremely so in the reds), and wetter than average in the
green shaded regions. The favored precipitation areas will be the northern high
plains.

The August outlook follows the lack of monsoonal flow
[https://www.weather5280.com/blog/2020/08/06/august-outlook-includes-little-moisture/] 
and a strengthening La Nina
[https://www.weather5280.com/blog/2020/08/03/la-nina-update-and-potential-analog-year-as-we-look-ahead-to-fall/]
. Both of those topics we addressed earlier this week.

So the bottom line is the drought continues and will expand as shown in the
August drought outlook:

Drought update & the outlook: Thursday, August 6th, 2020