Updated JAMSTEC Model and Beyond El Niño
JAMSTEC Update It has been a while since we have chatted about the JAMSTEC model and its forecast for the next several months. There is a reason for this. During the past several months, it has been forecasting colder than normal temperatures for Eastern Colorado. We've lamented in the past about why we didn't think this would happen (current strong El Niño and positive PDO), but figure the model was worth a look again. Why? Because some of what the model has been spitting out may be spot on...
Long-range forecast
Welcome Moisture for California and New JAMSTEC Analysis
Lots to cover here, so I am going to jump right in. The persistent pattern that has kept winter at bay for most of us, is still persisting in the form of a warm and mainly dry ridge over the Western US and cold/wet/snowy trough over the Eastern US. This is generally the pattern that has prevailed since fall of 2013 and is easy to spot today: {} You can clearly see the western ridge and the eastern trough that was initialized on the 18z GFS 500mb Ensembles today... That ridge was responsible