The much anticipated storm arrived overnight and has already buried parts of the Front Range under feet of snow with another 12 to 24 hours to go! While parts of the metro area fell victim to mild temperatures and prolonged rain/mixing last night, the majority of folks have already hit the low-end of their forecast range, and most of

We continue to track the potential for a wet, heavy snowfall across the region for the latter half of the week. Of course, there remains uncertainty around the details, and like every system, this one has some unique pros and cons going for it. Still, guidance is supportive of plentiful moisture across the region and likely some good accumulating snow for some of us. On several measures, this setu

Just a quick post tonight as we're watching evening data come in, and figured we'd share a few maps with you Insiders as it does look like there's at least some potential for some sneaky solid totals for communities that end up under the heavier bands from this system. Colorado snow forecast: A look at timing and snow mapsIt’s Friday morning and we’re seeing a weak storm system bring light snow and flurries to the south Denver metro, just enough snow to cause havoc on I-25 in Colorado Springs

This has been one of those weeks. Here we are just hours out from the arrival of our weekend storm, and I think most forecasters if they're being honest would say we don't have a great idea of how things are going to ultimately pan out. Just about everything is on the table still, from being dry-slotted, to more rain than snow, to well... a healthy amount of heavy, wet snow across a good portion of the urban corridor. It's really been one of those weeks where things just haven't quite added up

We've been talking about the early days of February for a couple of weeks now on Weather5280, and for Insiders we had an update on what we're watching for the month yesterday as well. From a forecasting perspective, things certainly look "interesting", while the uncertainty remains quite high as to how things will ultimately pan out. We'll get in the weeds a bit here, and then breakdo

As we discussed in our last update , we are tracking some moisture headed for Colorado this weekend. Some of that moisture will fall in the form of rain (😱), some in the form of snow (❄️), and some... well may not may not fall at all (🌬️). There are really two systems we are tracking for the holiday weekend. The first is a wet but warm system which will climb out of the southwest today and Frida

We are nearly a week into October now and inching closer to the average snowfall for many locations across Colorado and the High Plains. Plenty of anticipation on when we can expect the first snow to fly this season at lower elevations, with the backdrop of El Niño (and some historical support for early season snows), but also we are coming off the hottest September on record globally, a stat that hardly screams "snow". > ERA5 September 2023 monthly data are out. I'm still struggling to compr

As we've been discussing the last couple of days, the Mile High City may not only have a temperature problem (re snow) but may also have a storm track problem. Models do continue to wobble as we head into now-forecast time, but overall bias remains south... with plentiful moisture for those that end up in a direct hit, but for Denver that could ultimately end up just out of reach. We'll know soon enough! First, we trust this won't be a complete miss for Denver. In fact, in most circumstances w

As our latest system clears all focus turns to the upcoming week and a system that holds some of the better potential than we've seen in quite a while across Eastern Colorado for widespread appreciable moisture. There's good agreement between most of the models that quite a bit of water is on the way for parts of central and eastern Colorado this week. There are differences in track that place more of that moisture across Northern Colorado vs Southern Colorado, but these track details will get

Most of you are weather nuts and follow the weather very closely, which we love. I think it's fair to say, debate if you will, that modeling during 2023 has struggled at times with the day three to seven, and beyond, forecasts. That may not be fair. What may be more appropriate is our expectations for models to be accurate at those ranges exceeds expectations and to see storms "dry up" before hitting Denver and the Front Range is part of the process. I think both of my statements have merit.

A week ago we anticipated a much different end to this week than what looks like will be our reality, at least when it comes to temperatures. We showed this chart the other day, but felt it was worth reiterating. The top pink box shows what this model had for high temperatures a week ago in Denver for today/tomorrow/Friday, with the bottom box showing the pretty big shift in recent days to the outlook. From teens and 20s for highs, in previous updates - the past several have been much warmer.

Once again the internet is abuzz as some weather models are again producing a significant storm across the region next week. While the potential exists for this to come to fruition, uncertainty is extremely high at this time, with anything from cool and unsettled to cold and snowy on the table for Denver, the Front Range, and eastern plains of Colorado. It won't just be one system we'll need to watch for the coming week, which will add a bit of complication to communicating the forecast. Many

We continue to track a storm system that will deliver rain, snow, and wind to Colorado this week. Despite "good" model agreement in recent days, our confidence in this system has been relatively low when it comes to details on who ultimately sees how much snow in the end. In yesterday's update we showed where model data currently sat with regard to how much snow

We continue to track the potential for a strong winter storm to bring accumulating snow to much of the state by the middle of the coming week. Matt touched on the latest with this system in his video update earlier today , but we thought we'd take a look this afternoon at how much models are forecasting for snow across the Front Range from this system, and where/what differen

The past couple storm systems were able to shift the momentum, if you will, and bring in lasting cold temperatures in a pattern change to last quite some time and to provide nearly daily snow chances. Speaking of that latest storm, it's going to spread serious impacts across the country through this Wednesday. I talk about that here, but the rest of this blog focuses on the Denver area through the week and beyond. First off, temperatures. Let's just look generally at Denver for the next two we

A weird weekend for weather underway, as probabilities were slim at best for snow today (and we're seeing showers and flurries all day) and tomorrow's "big snow" looks more and more like a nothing-burger with each passing hour. The NWS still has "heavy snow" in the forecast grid for Denver from Sunday night through Monday. Maybe I'm completely missing something (possible), but I'm ready to call it. The low looks like it's far more likely to end up in Mexico than in our sweet spot, and outside

January starts off with a bang across the West with a steady supply of moisture hitting California and then fanning out to surrounding states, Colorado included. We recently wrote about the next wave of moisture adding to flooding issues for California, and the latest snowpack numbers there: Atmospheric River delivering torrential rain, snow, and wind to California; significant flooding possible this weekOne storm is not a drought buster, however, the current extended pattern in place over Ca

As we discussed in our Insider update yesterday , our next chance of snow across the urban corridor and Eastern Plains is on the way, set to bring another round of measurable snow for many of us along the Front Range to start 2023, and continue the travel difficulties many have faced this holiday season. The latest hourly planner for the Denver area shows the chance of precipitat

We continue to track our next weather-maker on the way early this coming week. As we mentioned in our last update, it looks like a potent storm for a good portion of the country, but the details on exactly how things will shake out along the urban corridor here remain a bit elusive. What's known * A powerful storm system will cross the Rockies and move onto the Plains from Monday through Wedn

The cold and wet weather has arrived and will stick with us through the remainder of the day and on into Saturday for many of us. No major changes to the forecast at this time. Last evening's cold front was impressive. It's awesome how many folks along the Front Range have weather stations these days and shared with us the dramatic temperature drop as the front moved through. In Fort Collins, the weather station at Christman Field dropped 26°F in just 15 minutes last night – a record for the s

Nothing like following up a snowless April in Denver (the city's second snowiest month on average!) with the chance for accumulating snow across the region on May 20th! Denver's average last snow of the season is April 28th, but snow in May is by no means uncommon. By the time we move into the second half of the month, however, it becomes far less common. The latest measurable snow on record came on June 2nd, 1951 when 0.3" of snow was recorded in Denver. We have seen measurable snow on the 29

There's better consensus in the modeling today with regard to our next system. Not great, but better. And consensus seems to be forming around the European ensemble idea, vs the American GEFS. That is, a more easterly and southerly storm track which will pull the greatest rain, snow, and wind away from the Front Range, and focus the greatest impacts across perhaps the Eastern Plains of Colorado, or even into Western Kansas and Texas/Oklahoma panhandles. There are still differences between th

It's time to address the elephant in the room, and that is the American GFS model producing eye-popping snowfall totals across parts of the region from late Sunday through Tuesday of next week. While the possibility exists that we'll see a significant winter storm across the region in this period, the reality is it's far some certain that this will occur. There remains considerable differences in the modeling today in how our next system will unfold, and with that a considerable amount of caut

We were bullish in yesterday's snowfall forecast . How that idea holds up remains to be seen, but it's likely that some areas will bust, with the Denver metro area being at the greatest risk for that today, and higher confidence in snow the farther north you go. Confidence This is a generally a low confidence forecast. Not only do we have considerable disagreement in the modeling to how much moisture we'll have to work

This morning's snow, mainly focused north and northwest of Denver and south of Fort Collins has come to an end. We now turn our attention to the next round of snow shower activity set to increase later this afternoon and overnight. Snow (and perhaps a bit of rain mixed in) chances increase from here through about midnight before gradually decreasing into Wednesday morning. Here's the latest hourly timeline for Denver: We don't see much change to the numbers we put out yesterday as you'll see