Really no other way to cut it. This system really had trouble getting its act together and as such, will likely underperform expected snow totals. As of 1:00pm, heavy snow has line up along and south of the South Platte River valley. Snow between 3-6" had already fallen in this area through the late morning. Radar Depiction 1:00pm ThursdayA wider view shows very meager precip along the Urban Corridor. Although, areas around Colorado Springs have seen reports of rain, snow, graupel and even ligh

We're starting to get into the "increasing confidence" range of the storm set to impact Colorado in the coming days. But "increasing confidence" doesn't mean "high confidence" at this point. For now we've got some data to at least share, and give some general guidance – but we still have another 24 hours worth of model data to comb through by tomorrow evening to give you a better idea of how this will play out. In short – you know what we're going to say: watch for the changes, maybe not much i

We've been a bit quiet, but there hasn't been much to report on with regard to the upcoming system either. Most of what we outlined on Monday remains true, though the paths to a big time snow at lower elevations are certainly far fewer this morning vs what we were seeing in guidance a few days ago. But so it goes. The storm track has been relatively stabl

After plenty of anticipation with this system, and for Denver-area snow lovers a lot of hoping for a slight shift in track, the storm finally moved in last night and did so without really any dramatic changes to our outlook. This morning, the storm remains on track, currently centered over east/northeast Colorado and gradually ejecting north/northeast through the day. As it does, look for conditions to continue to deteriorate across the northern High Plains, with Blizzard Warnings in effect fr

The cold and wet weather has arrived and will stick with us through the remainder of the day and on into Saturday for many of us. No major changes to the forecast at this time. Last evening's cold front was impressive. It's awesome how many folks along the Front Range have weather stations these days and shared with us the dramatic temperature drop as the front moved through. In Fort Collins, the weather station at Christman Field dropped 26°F in just 15 minutes last night – a record for the s

We had an update earlier today which went in some depth on the upcoming changes to our weather on the way, but wanted to offer another one tonight to share a quick update on the snowfall forecast, and reiterate the high fire danger on Thursday. Thursday will see gusty winds to 40 mph, high temperatures, and low humidity. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for

7:30pm: This post has been updated from a previous version to reflect the 6pm total at DIA. Some of the information will be out of date! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Well, we said we would just continue to update the post from earlier today with updated totals through the

First, thank you! We have the best, most thoughtful, and engaged readers in the region. All of your comments last night meant the world, and we are happy to report it's much harder to hear all the internet trolls this morning through all this snow! ❄️💨 While some areas haven't made it to forecast verification just yet, others have hit the low-end forecast and some, with still many hours of snow ahead today and into tonight.

I don't really know where to start tonight, so let's start with the the question I've been asked about 300 times today: Am I worried about our forecast? The answer is yes! But here's the thing, anyone that knows me knows it's ALWAYS a yes. I worry about every forecast probably way more than I should. I've been worried about this one since we started tracking it over a week ago. I worry when we forecast 1 - 3" and darn nobody cares. My quick hot take from today is something like the followi

A lot to get to this morning, but let's start with answering the question many of you have been asking this morning: Where's the snow?! It's coming. Our system is now centered over Southwest Utah/Northern Arizona, and will continue its slow trek east today and tonight. As it does, severe storms, rain, and ultimately heavy snow will fill in across the Plains and Central Rockies. We warned everyone yesterday [https://www.weather5280.com/2021/03/12/latest-snowfall-forecast-probabilities-and-d

What a week of weather data watching it's been. Plenty of anticipation tonight ahead of what will likely be a significant snowstorm across north-central and northeast Colorado this weekend. To all of our new readers that have joined us this week, please consider subscribing to Weather5280 to continue receiving weather updates and geeking out with us on weather long after the last flake flies with this storm. We haven't seen much change in the data thi

A quick update this evening as we watch another round of 0z data come in. No real change in our thinking from earlier today, which is a good thing. On the table is a significant winter storm for the Front Range and immediate adjacent plains. You can find our full discussion from earlier today below. We will aim to have our next full update on the weekend storm posted by midday Friday. Thursday AM update: Storm track wobbles continue, latest probabilities for significant snowfall across north

We continue to track a potentially significant snowfall event on the way for north-central and northeast Colorado this weekend. While widespread totals in excess of one foot of snow are possible, if even likely this weekend, there remain some caveats to that depending on exact storm track, which this morning remains in question. As for timing, look for rain and show showers to continue off and on through Friday evening. These aren't expected to amount to much, but enough to feel unsettled at t

I wanted to jump on this evening and offer some quick thoughts on this weekend's storm as we're now about two days out from when we should see precipitation increase in earnest across the region, and it feels like we need to reset just a little. So please, take a deep breath, (this is reminder for myself too, by the way), and clear your mind a bit of all the noise floating around this week. We won't go into much technical detail around the system here tonight. That was covered at length this

Data is in from the overnight and morning and shows little change to our continued focus on a significant snowfall event this weekend for Northern Colorado (especially the foothills), Eastern Wyoming, and Nebraska. Let us take a moment to make one thing clear, we are focused on the weekend event in this post but there are snow and rain chances before we even get to the main storm; rain/snow chances increase now through Friday. If need be this will be addressed in a post later Wednesday that wil

We are full swing into information overload as mets across the region struggle with how to effectively communicate the potential with our weekend storm, and the continued uncertainty with regard to how impactful (i.e. how much snow) will ultimately accumulate. What's clear is folks are interested in the evolution of this forecast, and of course with a high-end potential event everyone will be hanging on every update in the coming days. We will continue to push plentiful updates as we check this

You'd probably have to be living under a rock not to have heard about the POTENTIAL storm set to impact the region late this week and weekend. That being said, there is a lot more that goes into it than just snow maps. But since everyone like to see the pretty colors these days, here is a brief rundown of them... ECMWF Dete

Well, well, well. Overnight data has trended snowier with the incoming snow event tonight. Nearly all models showing more snowfall across the greater Denver area from where they were a day or two ago. In fact, most models show appreciable snowfall for the area tonight, focusing the heaviest snow along and west of I-25. The National Weather Service has extended its Winter Weather Advisory to include the foothills west of the urban corridor, which seems prudent. The two trends we're watching tod

While some of us will see fog and drizzle overnight tonight and Tuesday, we continue to track a larger storm system due to arrive for the latter half of the workweek. Data do not show a tremendous amount of change from how things looked yesterday. Models continue to track the system more north than south, putting the Palmer Divide, northern urban corridor, and far northern Plains under the heaviest

Nothing in the evening data to suggest we're headed for a bust, as snowfall probabilities are highest since March blizzard tonight across Northern Colorado. In fact, some models are pulling heavier snow south into Denver, Castle Rock, and even northern/western Colorado Springs tonight. We showed the HRRR forecast earlier today [/blog/2019/11/25/minor-forecast-adjustments-as-we-await-first-flakes-heavy-snow-across

Not too much change to the going forecast, only minor adjustments as we try to figure out what ultimately this thing is going to do. A Winter Storm Warning goes into effect at 8pm this evening, and will continue into Tuesday afternoon. From the National Weather Service in Boulder: > * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph. > * WHERE...From the Denver metro area and Castle Rock north to Boulder and Longmont, Greeley, and Fort Morgan. > * WHEN...Snow will develop t

As we covered yesterday on Weather5280 Insider , our targeted active period for winter weather is upon us, and with it another chance of snow for Northern Colorado following quickly on the heels of yesterday's snow. Today there is better consensus on the modeling for this next system, but the devil is in the details. While the trend overall has been toward the GFS solution (a deeper, more impactful snow eve

Not much change this morning as compared to our update yesterday . Models have done their usual back and forth with placement of heaviest QPF, but... all in all everything appears to be on track. Main updates today are that the National Weather Service has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for Denver for this evening, and a Warning for Colorado Springs. The Denver Advisory focuses on heavy snow potential this evening,

Another consistent 24 hours from the modeling since our update yesterday , with a major winter storm set to bring strong winds and areas of heavy snow to Northeast Colorado by Wednesday, prompting a Winter Storm Watch to be posted by the National Weather Service. While apparently the NWS does not issue Blizzard Watches anymore –– let's be clear, that's exactly what this is. Much of eastern (especially nort

If you're like me and always hoping for a sneaky "boom" snowfall, these are exactly the types of setups you should like. My unscientific take is that when models show a big storm a week out it likely won't materialize, but when they catch it late there is a fighting chance. Interestingly, two weeks ago this system was a lock on most of the medium range models. Then they lost it. But, as we mentioned in last week's SOTA, it didn't mean take your eye off it. Yesterday we started seeing several mo